Morning Thoughts: The Speech, Part II
Good Tuesday morning. Five weeks from today, voters in Pennsylvania head to the polls to cast ballots. Five weeks and one day from today, the race will still be going strong. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- As the economy struggles through difficult times, the dollar sinks to new lows and oil prices spike to new highs, the Senate meets in pro forma session to prevent President Bush from making recess appointments and the House is on recess. President Bush is in Jacksonville, Florida, where he will have lunch benefiting the Republican National Committee, followed by a speech on trade policy and RNC fundraiser number two in Palm Beach.
-- Barack Obama gives a major speech on race in America from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia this morning, nearly a week after comments from his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, surfaced in several news outlets. Like Mitt Romney's speech on religion in December, Obama's has opportunities and pitfalls to avoid. If he becomes the candidate of race, he will likely lose, and to the detriment of the Democratic Party for what could be decades to come, by splitting off a crucial portion of the Democratic electorate.
-- But Obama's main appeal has been more post-modern than any other candidate: He's been called "post-partisan," or "post-racial," and therein lies the key to a successful speech today. Obama, like Romney, has the unique opportunity to own a day of coverage (Although Obama has only two other candidates to compete with, whereas Romney had about two dozen) and to use the speech to define himself, and a generation of supporters, as something beyond race. If Obama does that successfully, there may be no stopping his march to the White House. But while the speech improved Romney's poll numbers in the days afterward, it should be noted that he still came up short.
-- And Obama is different, not only because of his race but because of his generation. The first post-boomer candidate to really have a shot at the presidency is important not only to note a coming changing of the guard (It may not happen now, but it's coming soon, Boomers), but also explains Obama's strength. Obama did not grow up marching for civil rights; he was too young. Instead, his formidable years were in the late 1970's and early 1980's. That, suggests the Post's Nikita Stewart, is why younger African Americans (who Stewart calls the "Hennessy and hope" crowd) embraced him so early, while older African American leaders stayed with Clinton or were late to the Obama party.
-- Still, recent polls show Obama's numbers have actually gone down lately, both against John McCain and against Hillary Clinton (check out those spikes), not an uncommon occurrence of late: Every time the glare has been turned onto one of Obama's potential weaknesses, his support experiences a minor hiccup. That's exactly what the Clinton campaign has been pointing to as evidence that she would be the strongest nominee. If he wins the nomination, Democrats will have to hope his campaign gets better at crisis management and that one of the forthcoming hiccups won't turn into a choke.
-- Then again, as Obama and Clinton fight over the Democratic nomination, they're going to have to eventually settle the question of just how a candidate gets nominated. That process took another step backwards yesterday when Florida Democrats abandoned plans to hold some sort of revote, the AP's Brendan Farrington and CNN's Rebecca Sinderbrand write. "This doesn't mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee," Florida Democratic Party chair Karen Thurman said in an email. But before the Rules and Bylaws folks do anything, they're going to have to strike an agreement between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, and that's going to be tough work.
-- Abandoning their effort to hold a revote, Florida Democrats dealt a serious blow to the Clinton campaign with the announcement. Widely popular in the state, and with a good foundation from which to run, Clinton will now have to make due with, at best, a few extra convention bodies instead of a larger share of what would have been the state's 210 delegates and super delegates. With time running out, Clinton's going to need to put together a string of wins akin to Obama's eleven-game streak between February 9 and March 4, in states like Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and, critically, Michigan, where the legislature is debating the proposed June 3 primary bill today.
-- Every day of Democratic squabbling is a good day for John McCain. As both Obama and Clinton rushed out statements on the economy yesterday, McCain, who self-admittedly knows little about the economy, did not -- he was in Iraq and Jordan. Top economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin said McCain has confidence in Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke, and praised the Fed's "creative, and, in some ways extraordinary" measures to promote financial stability, he told the Wall Street Journal. But McCain's going to have to deal with at least one part of his economic policy, and probably soon: He's always been against bailouts, even for those in foreclosure. Clinton and Obama, if they ever get out of their primary, would love to take on that grooved pitch.
-- Eye-Popping Number Of The Day: To get a sense of how much money this presidential contest is going to cost, look not only at the hundreds of millions raised and spent already, and the millions more pouring into Clinton's and Obama's coffers (The $85 million in February could easily be eclipsed this month), but look at pledges from outside Democratic groups. We know the AFL-CIO is planning a more than $50 million outreach and GOTV program, but we didn't know that other unions, affiliates and sympathetic organizations are planning a total of more than $400 million in outside spending, as Ben Smith reports will be revealed today. Throw in just one of the larger Republican organizations expected to weigh in with similar amounts of cash and the independent spending alone could reach a point at which organizers could have bought Bear Stearns twice.
-- Today On The Trail: Obama's only public event is his speech in Philadelphia. Clinton will meet voters in Philadelphia and in Millersville, just outside of Lancaster about halfway between Philadelphia and Harrisburg. John McCain, meanwhile, has left Iraq and is visiting Jerusalem, which itself may become an issue before the campaign is out.


