Morning Thoughts: The General Begins
Good Friday morning. Tampa was a good city for underdogs in the tournament's first round. Tonight, 12-seed Villanova and 10-seed Davidson face a one-seed and a three-seed respectively, in a new arena. Will Detroit be as good to the 'dogs as Tampa? Meanwhile, here's what Washington is watching before tipoff tonight:
-- House and Senate staffers get their last day of Spring break today as the bosses get set to head back to D.C. next week. Over at the White House, look for some awkward pictures when new Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visits. Rudd, who beat the more conservative John Howard last year, succeeded in knocking off one of President Bush's best allies with an electoral romp that made the 2006 U.S. elections look like a closely-fought contest. Rudd is also meeting with Defense Secretary Gates, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Secretary of State Rice. Later, Bush visits a business in Freehold, New Jersey.
-- As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle each other for the Democratic nomination, the general election has officially begun: John McCain is up with his first television ad, which calls him "the American president Americans have been waiting for." Naturally heavy on the patriotism, the ad will run in New Mexico, according to a release from the campaign. That's a state that voted for President Bush by 6,000 votes in 2004 and for Al Gore by just 365 votes in 2000. Despite a strong chance Democrats will have a very good year there, McCain, as a neighboring state's senator, will put the state back on the battleground list.
-- McCain will give reporters and voters a taste of what the general election looks like when he launches a massive biography tour beginning next week, as USA Today reports. McCain will make stops at his Alexandria, Virginia high school, followed by his alma mater, the Naval Academy in Annapolis, and military bases in Florida and Mississippi before returning home to Arizona. Democrats, who are turning their fire on each other, are preparing to allow McCain at least a month to define himself, underfunded though he may be. That's an opportunity that Bush denied to his foes, and had the Democratic nominee done the same to McCain, he wouldn't have a fighting chance. Now, with prominent Democrats warning of an "implosion" and a "disaster," McCain's chances are creeping back up to pretty good.
-- "Reagan Democrats" changed a generation. "McCain Democrats" have the potential to do the same, and thanks to several new polls out this week, the phrase has begun to burrow its way into the public consciousness. While polls have showed more Clinton supporters willing to vote for McCain than Obama supporters, if their candidate doesn't get the nomination, Clinton warned Democrats against that course of action at a speech in Fayetteville, North Carolina yesterday, CNN's Peter Hamby writes. Obama struck the same chord in an interview that aired yesterday on ABC's "World News," as AP's Beth Fouhy writes.
-- Either Clinton or Obama is going to have to deal with a fractured party and bring it back together. That fracturing is not unusual: Just over a month ago, the buzz centered on how well John McCain could rally conservatives behind his candidacy when he had so outraged them for so long. Now McCain appears to have brought together a party that at one point was torn asunder by as many as five candidates who had legitimate chances of winning the nomination (and campaigning with Mitt Romney in Utah, no less). Healing can take place, and by the end of the campaign it is likely both parties will present largely united fronts. But for now, squabbling Democrats have clearly opened the door for McCain to peel off a few of their constituents.
-- There are reasons for high rates of defection to McCain if the opposing Democrat wins the nomination, the Post's Jon Cohen writes. Clinton's unfavorable ratings are rising among African Americans and women voters, while Obama's is rising among Clinton supporters. But of important note, while Clinton and Obama supporters threaten to vote for McCain if they don't get their way, head-to-head matchups still show Democrats of all stripes choosing the Democratic candidate over McCain. Cross-party defection used to be far more common, Cohen writes: When Richard Nixon won in 1972, he won 38% of self-identified Democratic voters. Ronald Reagan won 28% and 25% in 1980 and 1984. The numbers continued to decline, and George W. Bush won just 12% and 11% of Democratic voters in 2000 and 2004.
-- Back to the Democratic race for a moment. Despite wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island on March 4, rumors of incredible discord within the Clinton campaign led manager Maggie Williams to make plans to ask the entire campaign staff to turn in their resignations and reapply for their jobs, Hotline's Nora McAlvanah writes. That could have meant the end to a long-running feud between chief strategist Mark Penn and just about everyone else on staff. Shaking up a campaign team when the candidate is close to three-quarters of the way to the nomination is a bold move, though it was Clinton herself who eventually nixed the idea.
-- And what's Barack Obama gotten himself into? He appears on "The View" today, a guest spot he filmed yesterday in New York, and he's still talking about controversial comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Agreeing the remarks were offensive, Obama defended Wright as a "brilliant man who was still stuck in a time warp," ABC News reports. Obama says Wright, with whom he's spoken in recent days, is "saddened" by the controversy. "View" host Elisabeth Hasslebeck said the matter might give voters pause about the candidate's judgment, previewing attacks that are almost certain to come from the right.
-- Grand Opening Of The Day: When the Atlanta Braves head to Washington on Sunday to officially inaugurate the new Nationals Park near the Navy Yard, a famous face will throw out the first pitch. President Bush, who managed a halfway decent opening toss in St. Louis in 2004, will launch the ceremonial chuck Sunday night to kick off another season of mediocrity for the Nationals. Is it in any way ironic that opening day will be the third game played in the new park? The George Washington University ball club faced a conference rival there last week, and the Nats play the Orioles in an exhibition game on Saturday.
-- Today On The Trail: Clinton heads to Indiana for town hall meetings in Mishawaka and Hammong. Later, show hosts an event in Fort Wayne before rallying with supporters in Muncie. Obama has an event slated for Pittsburgh before heading to Greensburg for a town hall meeting, the first leg of a long trip through Pennsylvania. McCain, meanwhile, holds a media availability in Las Vegas, Nevada.


