Good Monday morning. Brackets busted? Have no fear, politics is still here. That's what this cellar-dweller is relying on. Here's what Washington is keeping an eye on this morning:

-- The House and Senate enter a second week of Spring recess. The Senate has a thirty-second pro forma session planned for today in order to continue to prevent recess appointments to key posts. President Bush is back in Washington after spending Easter at Camp David, and today he meets Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian Minister of External Affairs, and presides over the White House Easter Egg Roll. Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa meets Defense Secretary Robert Gates at the Pentagon, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice shuttles between events with both dignitaries all day. Vice President Cheney is still traveling through the Middle East.

-- Over the weekend, not much happened: Barack Obama and his family slipped out of Chicago for a quickie vacation, while Hillary Clinton dined with her family at a fancy restaurant on Easter Sunday. But a consensus emerged and established itself in a big way: The contest for the Democratic nomination is not close, neck-and-neck or anything of the sort. Obama has a commanding lead, and it's going to be nearly impossible for Clinton to catch up. Her advisers admit to Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, in a CW-setting piece, that they have but a 10% chance of winning. If states had seen fit to schedule their contests between March 4 and April 22, the race might be over sooner. As it is, Obama will have to wait for one of several contests, probably in early May, to wrap it up.

-- Circle May 6 on your calendar as the date likely to end the Democratic contest. Indiana and North Carolina hold their contests that day, and both states are emerging as must-wins for Clinton. In the Hoosier State, she's got backing from Senator Evan Bayh, and she will benefit from the blue collar white voters in the state's eastern and southern regions. But Obama's got the west side and Indianapolis, where a large number of the state's Democratic votes will come from, some of which, happily for him, tune into Chicago television stations. Few polls have been conducted in the state, but a familiar name will likely come out with a new survey before state voters cast their ballots: The only person to get turnout right in Iowa, Ann Selzer, who conducts a survey for the Indianapolis Star and a local television station. We've got an email in to Selzer to find out when she's going in the field.

-- North Carolina is unfriendly territory for Clinton. 21% of the state's voters are African American, meaning those voters will play a huge role in the Democratic primary. Looking forward to a general election, the state will also serve as something of a test for Obama's appeal to white voters: In neighboring South Carolina, Clinton outperformed Obama among white voters just three to two (John Edwards actually beat them both). In Virginia, to the north, Obama beat Clinton among whites by five points. By Mississippi, though, the electorate was seriously divided, with Clinton beating Obama by a margin among whites that was almost as big as his winning margin among African Americans. If white voters break more evenly in North Carolina, Obama will assuage fears from some Democrats that he might not make it through November.

-- If that even split of white voters occurs, he will win the Tar Heel State. Emerging conventional wisdom suggests that Clinton needs wins -- and big wins -- in every remaining contest to make an even somewhat lucid case to super delegates, and North Carolina is where she will face the biggest challenge. If she doesn't win there, even if she carries Indiana, the campaign might realize that it's time to close up shop. To get a win in North Carolina, and even to begin to make the case to super delegates that the candidate who trails in pledged delegates should win the convention, Clinton will have to go far more negative than she already has, likely seriously wounding the Democratic Party in the process. She may be unwilling to do that, and even if she does, it may backfire.

-- Remember John McCain? As much as the Republican nominee-in-waiting loves the Democratic infighting, at some point he's going to have to reinsert himself into the debate, and in a manner of his choosing. As McCain returns from an overseas visit to Iraq, the Middle East and Europe and heads to California for the beginning of a biographical tour, he is greeted by a New York Times story rehashing his discussions with Democrats about leaving his own party. For most presidential candidates in a general election, having the reputation as a moderate who can work with the other side is a big political gain. For McCain, the notion that he almost bolted the GOP -- twice -- puts an 800-pound gorilla in the room where that conversation he's having with conservatives is taking place. Reaching out to independents is crucial, but one needs a base from which to do so.

-- Given that factor, does McCain's relationship with Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman help or hurt? Lieberman was by McCain's side throughout the overseas expedition, even tossing him a little help when McCain flubbed the al Qaeda-Iran connection line in Jordan, and Politico's Jonathan Martin explores their deeper relationship. No one should be surprised if (when?) Lieberman makes a prime time speech on McCain's behalf at the Republican National Convention (Another JMart smart look: What Would Scoop Do?), but Lieberman has a pretty liberal voting record on certain issues, and aside from the war on Iraq he's still more Democrat than Republican. McCain can benefit from Lieberman's ringing endorsement, but he should be under no illusions that allowing Lieberman's name to show up on a vice presidential short list would probably do more harm than good.

-- McCain's entire bid for the White House in 2008, through the primaries and the early stages of the general election, has been based on his judgment about Iraq. Americans trust him to do a better job on the war than the Democratic candidates not, it seems, because he agrees with President Bush, but because he brings an authenticity to the experience of the soldiers, thanks to his experiences in Vietnam. Getting elected in November will require McCain to focus on Iraq, the safety of the troops and how to win, not just how to get out. But he faces a steep task, and it gets no easier when U.S. forces reach a sad benchmark, as an IED blast in Baghdad yesterday ratcheted up the number of American dead past 4,000 amid a weekend of violence in Iraq.

-- Headline Of The Day: "Forecasters Warn of Flooding in Ark." That would be Arkansas, not Noah's boat, but ABC's headline writers, topping an Associated Press story, found a humorous spin (probably unintentionally) to the increasing storms across the Midwest. Flood warnings are in place today for parts of Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama's on vacation, with no public events scheduled until Wednesday. Clinton offers a major policy address at the University of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia, then attends an event with female supporters in Blue Bell before rallying in Uniontown. McCain starts a new tour across the country with a town hall meeting in Chula Vista, California.