New Hampshire Governor John Lynch, a Democrat who won re-election in 2006 by a record margin over an admittedly weak Republican challenger, is in strong position in his bid for a third term, a new survey shows. Two years after his party swept to power in the state legislature for the first time in nearly a century, Lynch faces the prospect of a tougher foe in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, but the survey shows independent voters breaking heavily for the incumbent and giving Lynch a serious advantage.

The American Research Group poll, which also showed former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen far outpacing Republican Senator John Sununu in a rematch of their 2002 battle, was conducted 3/14-17 among 541 registered New Hampshire voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Lynch and Guinta were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lynch 62 / 87 / 26 / 70 (+14 from last, 12/07)
Guinta 20 / 12 / 44 / 9 (-12)

While the December poll testing the two held Lynch under 50% of the vote, several factors in this month's poll will likely be questioned as well. With undeclared voters breaking as heavily for Lynch as Democrats are, some may suggest that the sample gathered more Democratic leaners than those who bent toward Republicans. But independents handed the GOP severe losses in 2006, and a large margin of those voters favoring Lynch is not unlikely.

If he runs, a decision he has not officially made, Guinta will be able to close the gap by improving his performance among Republicans, who still outnumber Democrats in the state. But any victory will have to include a win among independent voters, a population far larger than both parties, and there, Guinta has work to do.

Both Lynch and Guinta face re-election every two years, but Guinta's take place in off years, meaning he would not have to surrender his mayoralty to make a bid for the state's top job. And Guinta is taking serious steps toward a run. Top political adviser Mike Biundo was in Washington this week interviewing fundraising firms that might be employed for the race, the Union Leader's John DiStaso reported.