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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« McCain, Close To Win, Benefits From Dem Squabbles | Blog Home Page | McClintock In, Oller Out In CA-4 »

GOP Favored For Baker's Seat

Special election nominees will be chosen Saturday in Louisiana, where two Republican House members stepped down this year.

In the 1st District, Bobby Jindal left office after winning the governorship, leaving vacant the most Republican district in the state. In the 6th District, Richard Baker left his Baton Rouge-based seat to head up a national hedge fund association. Baker, who retired in the middle of his 11th term, had no major party opposition in 2006 and was considered safe for re-election this year.

The Republican nominee in the 6th District is likely to win the special election, though the results should be closer than in the 1st District. Although Democrats currently outnumber Republicans by almost 2-to-1 in the district, voters have traditionally preferred Republicans in the general election. President Bush won 59 percent here in 2004 and Baker has regularly won by wide margins.

The four Republicans up for the nomination include consultant Laurinda Calonge, contracts administrator Michael Cloonan, former state Rep. Woody Jenkins, and former Baker chief of staff Paul Sawyer. In the last FEC reports candidates filed, Calonge reported having raised close to $200,000, with just more than $100,000 cash on hand through February 17. Not far behind is Sawyer, who raised $112,000 with $88,000 on hand. Jenkins raised $80,000 with $22,000 in the bank, while Cloonan did not file a report with the FEC.

Among the five Democrats running, State Rep. Don Cazayoux has a 2-to-1 lead in fundraising over his closest rival. Cazayoux raised $260,000 with $150,000 on hand as of February 17. Andy Kopplin, former director of the Louisiana Recovery Authority, raised $126,000 with $85,000 on hand. Jason DeCuir and Michael Jackson both raised less than $20,000, and Joe Delatte did not file a report.

If the winner of both the Democratic and Republican primaries win more than 50 percent of the vote, the special general election will be held April 5. If at least one party goes to a runoff, it will be held April 5, with the general moved to May 3.

--Kyle Trygstad