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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Med Issue Forces Estabrook Out | Blog Home Page | Dems' Vegas Vacation »

Expanding The Field

As Democrats look forward to another positive landscape in 2008, the party has cast a wide net. A new Democratic poll out of Georgia suggests the party could even give an otherwise safe incumbent at least something of a scare. While the party may not have a real shot at Senator Saxby Chambliss' seat, if they can scare the Republican into staying home and focusing on his own race, it will help elsewhere.

The poll, conducted by the Washington-based Mellman Group, was conducted between 2/21-24 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 600 voters were included in the sample, for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Chambliss was only tested against generic Democrats.

General Election Matchup
Chambliss 42
Generic Dem 37

Chambliss, forced from office when redistricting would have placed him in the same district as fellow Republican Jack Kingston, ran instead for Senate, beating incumbent Democrat Max Cleland. The campaign was one of the most brutal in the country, including an ad that featured Cleland's face next to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. Many outraged senators, including John Kerry and John McCain, spoke out against the ads slamming Cleland, a triple-amputee Vietnam veteran.

Since then, polls have continuously showed Chambliss as less popular than fellow Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, who was first elected two years after his senior colleague. The Mellman poll shows Chambliss' job approval at an upside down 38% positive and 40% negative, while just 37% said they would vote to re-elect the incumbent.

Despite his disappointing numbers at home, Chambliss remains the heavy favorite. Even as the national Republican Party has suffered, Georgia has trended more towards the GOP than virtually any other state under President Bush. Democrats have also failed to recruit a truly strong candidate. DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones appears to be the front-runner in the Democratic primary, though he faces former television reporter Dale Cardwell and businessmen Josh Lanier and Rand Knight.

While Democrats hope to expand the field, in the absence of a strong candidate it appears they may fall short. Former State Representative Jim Martin, who ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, may be considering a bid of his own, but even his statewide name I.D. would likely fall short against the incumbent.