Embattled Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds, the upstate New Yorker who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee during the disastrous 2006 election cycle, will announce today that he will not seek re-election, the New York Daily News reported late last night. The retirement brings to twenty-nine the number of Republicans who will not run for re-election this year.

Hand-picked to replace former Rep. Bill Paxon in 1998, Reynolds had been a campaign aide as well as a policy wonk, one of the few members of Congress who actually paid attention to national politics. But as chair of the NRCC during a wave election, he saw thirty GOP seats flip to Democrats and, late in the cycle, even had to spend some time protecting his own seat, which he won by just 9,000 votes, or about 4%.

That campaign, against Democrat Jack Davis, a self-funding businessman, was made all the more difficult by the scandal surrounding former Florida Rep. Mark Foley. Reynolds and then-Speaker Dennis Hastert disagreed on when or if Reynolds informed the top Republican of allegations about Foley's behavior, and the NRCC chair took some of the blame for failing to keep House pages safe. It could have been worse: South of Reynold's district, Republican Sue Kelly lost her re-election bid thanks largely to the scandal.

The battle to replace Reynolds will be fiercely fought throughout the western New York district. The seat represents voters in the Buffalo suburbs to the Rochester suburbs, with rural areas in between. President Bush took a 12-point win there in 2004 after winning by seven in 2000. Democrats have already put up Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, and Davis is said to be thinking of another bid.

Republicans are in good position to hold the seat; the party has a significant registration edge, as 41% of voters there are registered with the GOP as compared with 31.5% who are registered Democrats. The remaining 27.5% are registered as independents or with another party. State Senator George Maziarz, Assemblyman Jim Hayes and former Assemblyman Charles Nesbitt are all said to be considering bids for the Republican nomination.

If the district becomes contentious, it will be another headache for New York Republicans, who find themselves running behind in retiring GOP Rep. Jim Walsh's district and having to defend Rep. Randy Kuhl.

Republicans on Capitol Hill won't say it, but they are probably not that upset Reynolds is leaving. His narrow win in 2006 was thanks to his own blunders, and another Republican may be more likely to hold the seat easily. Washington Republicans also privately blame Reynolds for the loss of several seats in 2006 and for leaving the NRCC with a huge amount of debt. Few tears, if any, will be shed in House GOP circles.