Minnesota State Senator Terri Bonoff leads her closest rival by four points, a survey for her campaign shows, suggesting that Democrats have a strong chance to pick off a seat held by retiring Republican Jim Ramstad. The survey suggests the state's Third District, which surrounds Minneapolis on three sides, could be one of the closest contests of the year.

Conducted by Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the poll was taken 3/11-12 and surveyed 401 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%. Bonoff, Democratic attorney Ashwin Madia and Republican opponent Erik Paulsen, a state representative, were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
Bonoff 44
Paulsen 40

Paulsen 43
Madia 40

Bonoff, the candidate of choice for Washington Democrats, purportedly leads Madia in a primary ballot test, though those numbers were not released. Bonoff had raised just over $300,000 at the end of December, with $230,000 left in the bank, compared with $166,000 raised and $124,000 in the bank for Madia. Paulsen, who has a clear shot at the GOP nod, has raised nearly $390,000 with $363,000 left in reserve.

Democrats competing in the Third District has to be a serious blow to GOP psyches in Minnesota, but it's a story that is being repeated around the country. The suburban district, which includes the Mall of America and Lake Minnetonka (after which Tonka toys are named), has been trending more Democratic of late after a century of being prime Republican territory. President Bush never took a victory larger than five points -- he beat John Kerry in the seat by just three.

Still, Bonoff's lead is not overwhelming, and her race won't be easy. Eager to increase gains made in the North Star State in 2006, when the party held a Senate seat and picked up a congressional seat, D.C. Democrats are likely to make Bonoff's victory a top priority and could spend heavily to do so. Paulsen, by all accounts a good candidate, will not be an easy foe to beat, especially in an area where many still reflexively reach for the GOP lever.