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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« GOP Sounds Supermaj Alarm | Blog Home Page | This Week On PN Radio »

Big Shots Line Up In OH

Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, a Republican, got thumped in his bid for governor in 2006. Well-financed, well-known and widely respected among Ohio and national evangelical leaders, Blackwell nonetheless garnered a paltry 37% in his bid to replace outgoing Republican Governor Bob Taft. Democrat Ted Strickland, until then a member of Congress whose district stretched along the state's eastern border, won with a massive 61%, virtually unheard of in an open seat contest.

Strickland, who recently helped deliver his state's primary contest to Hillary Clinton, is widely popular and has been widely touted as a vice presidential contender, if not someone with a future of his own at the head of a ticket. But his stature hasn't stopped any of three major Republicans from openly and actively considering a run against him more than two and a half years before he will again face voters.

Few states reacted as strongly against Republicans in 2006 than Ohio, and one of the casualties was then-Senator Mike DeWine. The state's former Lieutenant Governor before his election to Congress' upper chamber, DeWine did little to be fired by Ohio voters other than to have the Republican label after his name. He lost by a wide 12-point margin to now-Senator Sherrod Brown in a race that cost the two a combined $25 million.

DeWine is now considering a comeback against Strickland, though he will have to get through a competitive primary if he decides to make a run. Former House Budget Committee chairman John Kasich, now a Fox News pundit who briefly considered a presidential bid in 2000 before endorsing George W. Bush, told the Columbus Dispatch he is actively laying the groundwork for his own bid. Both potential candidates will make their decision after this year's election.

The two may be joined by a third strong contender, former Rep. Rob Portman, who left the House to serve as United States Trade Representative and then as the chief of the Office of Management and Budget. Portman, who currently seems to be one of conservative columnist Bob Novak's favorite candidates for Vice President, is reportedly also considering a bid (Updated on Saturday: Novak's done it again).

Should the three top Republicans find themselves competing through 2009 and 2010, the contest will largely break down along geographic lines. Portman represented the Second District in Congress, which runs south along the Kentucky border and near the heavily Republican Cincinnati suburbs. Kasich represented the Twelfth District, which sits just north of Columbus, the state's largest city. DeWine's Congressional district, before being elected statewide, was halfway between the two cities. With three strong bases, all three candidates would have to work hard to win over votes from northern Ohio.

It is rare that three such prominent Republicans would line up against each other, but next cycle that very well may happen. Still, the winner of what would surely be a bloody and bruising primary will have no cakewalk come November 2010. Strickland, assuming he's not vice president, will be well-funded and has made few mistakes during his time in office.