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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Morning Thoughts: McCain's Hydra | Blog Home Page | Two Sens Up With Ads »

Alexander Leads Own Poll

First-term Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander is in strong position for re-election, a new poll conducted for his campaign shows. Even in a state with more registered Democrats than Republicans, Alexander, the former cabinet secretary and one-time presidential candidate, far outpaces the only two serious Democrats actively considering a bid.

The poll, conducted by Ayers, McHenry & Associates, a Republican polling firm, was conducted 3/5-9 among 600 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Alexander, former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke and former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett were tested. 39% of the sample was made up of Democrats, 32% of Republicans and 29% independent voters.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Alexander 59 / 26 / 93 / 66
Tuke 28 / 58 / 2 / 17

Alexander 58 / 23 / 94 / 64
Padgett 31 / 64 / 2 / 20

Alexander maintains strong approval ratings of 68% to just 17% who disapprove, and he's seen favorably by 67% of the state, while 18% view him in an unfavorable light. Neither Padgett nor Tuke is known by more than a handful of the state's population, making their already uphill battle against the popular and generally moderate incumbent all the more difficult.

The incumbent isn't extremely well-funded, but he had enough in the bank, and enjoyed enough favorable recognition, to scare off any serious Democratic threat. Through December 31, Alexander had a little over $2 million in the bank.

Among Democrats in the state, former Rep. Harold Ford, who lost a 2006 Senate bid against now-Senator Bob Corker, and Rep. Lincoln Davis are thought to have the brightest future. Two-term Governor Phil Bredesen, also a Democrat, may also consider an eventual political future once his tenure expires in 2010. Davis has already said he will run for governor that year.