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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Morning Thoughts: Welcome To Washington | Blog Home Page | Casualty List Grows »

AL Dem Retires

Nine-term Democrat Bud Cramer will not seek re-election this fall, the Birmingham News reports, giving Republicans a chance to pick up a seat in heavily-red territory. The founder of the National Children's Advocacy Center, Cramer was first elected to Congress in 1990 after ten years as a county district attorney.

Cramer's Fifth District, which runs along the state's northern border with Tennessee, is anchored in Huntsville and is home to many dams as part of the Tennessee Valley Authority as well as to an important NASA laboratory. Though it has never elected a Republican to Congress, the district gave President Bush a ten-point margin in 2000 and a whopping 21-point win in 2004.

Cramer ran unopposed in 2006 and hasn't had a difficult race since 1994, when he won by a single percentage point. A centrist, Cramer voted near the middle of the House in every category. If Democrats are to hold the seat, they will need a candidate who can fit that mold.

Potential candidates include State Senator Parker Griffith, Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker and State Rep. John Robinson, all Democrats. Attorney Ray McKee, a former rocket scientist, is the only Republican in the race at the moment, though rumors are swirling around State Senator Arthur Orr, real estate investor Stan McDonald, whose brother in law, Robert Aderholt, represents the neighboring Fourth District, and Wayne Parker, a Republican activist in the region.

Cramer's is the second retirement from Alabama this year, after Republican Rep. Terry Everett announced he would step down earlier. Cramer also becomes the sixth Democrat to say thanks, but no thanks, to another run, though only the third not seeking a higher office instead. His departure will leave a seat on the Appropriations Committee open, the first Democratic seat to open up this year after six Republican seats have already opened thanks to retirements.

Given the seat's overall tilt toward the GOP, Republicans will likely target the seat. "We clearly view this seat as a potential pickup opportunity. The recruitment process has already begun and we look forward to competing for the seat in the fall," NRCC press secretary Ken Spain said in a statement out this morning.

In 2006, as Democrats picked up thirty seats in the House, Republicans not only failed to knock off a single Democrat, they didn't pick up any of the other party's open seats, either. While several freshmen and longer-term incumbents are vulnerable again this year, Cramer's seat presents perhaps the GOP's best shot at a pickup.

Both parties will have to scramble: Cramer announced his retirement yesterday, just over three weeks to go before the April 4 filing deadline.