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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« IL GOP Nominee Drops Out | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: The Clinton Conundrum »

Stevens Files For Re-Election

It has been said that Alaska has three industries: Tourism, oil and Ted Stevens. The influential 84 year old Republican Senator, who already holds the GOP record for Senate service, filed papers to run for re-election this year, this in spite of an ongoing federal investigation into his relationship with an oil services company. Stevens, appointed to the Senate in 1968, is seeking a seventh full term and may face the most difficult re-election of his career.

The investigation, which centers on testimony from VECO Corp. executives Bill Allen and Rick Smith, has already snagged several Republican state legislators. Allen has been a huge donor to Stevens' campaigns, and reportedly oversaw renovations on Stevens' house, outside Anchorage. Agents from the IRS and the FBI raided Stevens' house in July.

Speaking with reporters after filing, Stevens refused to discuss the investigation, the Anchorage Daily News reported, though the issue will certainly play a role in the campaign. Stevens maintains his innocence, and he refuses to talk about the investigation in order, he says, to avoid the appearance of trying to influence it.

Stevens has never won election with less than 60%, and re-election bids in 1996 and 2002 saw him win 77% and 78%, respectively. This time around, after much-publicized public relations snafus like the $250 million Bridge to Nowhere, Democrats sense an opportunity to steal a seat. National Democrats hope to entice Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run, but though Begich was in Washington recently, he has not announced a decision.

Stevens' colleague in the state's lone House seat, Republican Rep. Don Young, is also said to be involved in the investigation, and Democrats think they have a strong challenger in former State House Democratic Leader Ethan Berkowitz.

Both Begich and Berkowitz would have better chances than virtually any other Democrat in Alaska. A poll taken in early December, by Maryland-based independent pollster Del Ali, showed Begich leading Stevens by six points, thanks to a twenty-point lead among independents. Berkowitz led Young by seven points and led by twenty-two among independents.

Though they are long-time incumbents, Alaskans don't have very favorable impressions of either Stevens, who has a 39% approval rating compared with 58% who disapprove, or Young, whose 40%-54% split is only slightly better. If Republicans can't convince the two, who have represented the state for a combined 75 years, to step aside, the party may end up losing both seats.