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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Lantos Passes Away At 80 | Blog Home Page | Shadegg Surprises With Retirement »

Shaheen Keeps Big NH Lead

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen has a big lead over Republican Senator John Sununu, a new University of New Hampshire poll shows, maintaining favorable ratings well above the incumbent's in an effort to win a rematch from the pair's 2002 battle.

The survey, taken between 1/18-27, interviewed 555 adults about the Senate race, for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Sununu and Shaheen, along with senior Senator Judd Gregg, were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shaheen 55 / 85 / 11 / 54 / 50 / 59 (+1 from last poll, in 9/07)
Sununu 37 / 5 / 84 / 32 / 44 / 30 (-1)

Sununu's favorable rating has jumped six points from the last poll, to 46%, while his unfavorables decreased slightly. Shaheen's numbers barely changed, though at 57% favorable, she enjoys a much better statewide brand than her opponent. By contrast, Gregg is viewed favorably by 50% of the electorate, while 25% view him unfavorably. That could bode well for Democrats when they next face Gregg on the ballot: His favorable ratings topped 60% in April 2006, while his unfavorables have grown steadily from 15% in the same poll.

In better news for Shaheen, she leads in every one of the state's regions. Typically Republican North Country voters favor their former governor by a 58%-39% margin, while Sununu is even losing the heavily Republican Connecticut Valley by a 3-point margin, 47%-44%. Shaheen holds big leads in the voter-rich Manchester area, 52%-36%, and on the Seacoast, 62%-28%.

Even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee should be happy with the poll. Both freshmen incumbent Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes enjoy high favorable ratings, though sample sizes in each district number slightly below 300, making for a large margin of error. Shea-Porter is viewed favorably by a 43% to 17% margin, while her 2006 opponent, former Rep. Jeb Bradley, who is seeking re-election, has a slimmer 38%-25% favorable-to-unfavorable margin. Hodes is seen positively by 37% while just 18% say they view him unfavorably.