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Morning Thoughts: The Clinton Conundrum

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Good Monday morning. Have heart, baseball fans, as the first spring training games are just a week away. In the meantime, here's what Washington is keeping its eye on this a.m.:

-- It's still President's Day in the Senate, but not in the slacking off kind of way: Senators, who head back to the chamber at 3 p.m. today, will begin their day by hearing George Washington's farewell address. Soon after they will continue to debate, and try to invoke cloture upon, a measure dealing with health care for Native Americans. The House meets at 4 p.m., when it will vote on a series of resolutions honoring, among others, the Alaska Army National Guard and Lieutenant General Russell Honore, of Katrina recovery fame. Congressmen will also vote on a renewable energy tax credit bill. President Bush meets today with the nation's governors, in town for their annual conference.

-- Ralph Nader is back in the presidential race, telling Meet the Press host Tim Russert he was frustrated by Democratic efforts to keep him off several states' ballots in 2004. How much of a factor he will be this year is unclear. After winning more than 2.5% of the vote in 2000, he took just 0.3% in 2004, and he promises he won't steal a victory from a Democratic candidate. "If the Democrats can't landslide the Republicans this year, they ought to just wrap up, close down, and emerge in a different form," he said. Barack Obama's biting response to a Nader candidacy: "My sense is is that Mr. Nader is somebody who, if you don't listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you're not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work."

-- Hillary Clinton is facing the toughest battle of her political career. Down in every measure -- popular vote, delegates, states won, money raised -- she is an underdog in the truest sense of the word. At fundraisers in Boston Sunday, and during stops in Rhode Island, Clinton said her supporters were urging her not to give up, and that she has no plans to do so through the March 4 primaries, AP's Beth Fouhy writes. Still, it seems Clinton, who claims she's reassured by her donors' support, is the one doing most of the reassuring. If she doesn't continue to reassure, she may not even make it to election day.

-- During those stops in Rhode Island, Clinton offered some of the most sarcastic criticisms of Obama of any candidate to date. Bringing people together, she said, might not be as easily said as done: "The sky will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect," she said, to laughter. Clinton's danger: That she irritates the next president and that she may jeopardize any political future she might have.

-- A bottom line for Clinton: Can she find a message that works against Obama? Everything she's tried so far, from the earliest days of the campaign, have yet to work. In the last few weeks, her shots at Obama have included charges of plagiarism, charges of avoiding debates, charges that his campaign literature was cause for shame, and, as above, outright ridicule. If any message is working against Obama, it hasn't become apparent yet, and the inconsistency of the Clinton message machine shows their frustration, the LA Times writes. Four new ads in Ohio and Texas don't help establish a very consistent message, either. John McCain's team is also taking notes about what works -- more accurately, what doesn't -- and coming up with new ideas.

-- The nation's governors, in town this week for their annual conference, are focusing heavily on energy The media, on the other hand, is focusing heavily on them, and, conveniently enough, doing so just as vice presidential speculation is heating up. Target number one is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who endorsed John McCain early and has been by his side often. Pawlenty, Jonathan Martin writes, sat down with two top Politico editors, along with Dan Balz, David Broder, David Brooks and Bob Novak. He issued standard denials of interest on Fox News Sunday and CNN's Late Edition, denying that he's interested in the job. Still, with his name coming up this often, McCain has to at least include him on a short list.

-- "Half of the governors here are on some list," Pawlenty wisely said to the New York Times (add them to the above list), which promotes buzz and speculation around South Carolina's Mark Sanford, Florida Republican Charlie Crist and Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, as well as Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona's Janet Napolitano, Bill Ritter, of Colorado, ex-DNC chief and Pennsylvania CEO Ed Rendell and Ohio Governor Ted Strickland. A perfect way to poke and prod at the potential veeps, and it's safe to guess that at least McCain's campaign is keeping one eye on the meeting this weekend.

-- Far-Fetched Scenario Of The Day: It is "unlikely, but possible" that Mitt Romney will jump back into the Republican race if McCain keeps faltering, son Josh tells the Deseret Morning News, of Southern Utah, in this morning's paper. The only Romney who actually resides in Utah, Josh said he's been approached to take on the state's lone Democrat, Rep. Jim Matheson, in November, and that he hasn't ruled such a run out. Utah would be a good start for the 32-year old potential candidate: His dad raised a whopping $6 million from the state for his run, providing a great list from which to start making those finance calls. NRCC chair Tom Cole would love to see a Romney run in Utah.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton gives a speech on foreign policy this morning at The George Washington University, this humble column's alma mater, before attending a fundraising reception there that evening. Obama holds a roundtable discussion in Cincinnati before rallying there, and later will head to another rally in Dayton. McCain is in Rock River for a town hall meeting and a chat with the press, and he will meet voters in Parma, Ohio later today. Huckabee is in Providence, Rhode Island, to visit a school before heading to Warwick for a rally.

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