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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Previewing IL Primaries | Blog Home Page | McCain's Arizona Problem »

Morning Thoughts: Nothing To See Here

Good Tuesday morning. The air seems so calm, as it does every election day, though we know voters are scrambling to the polls and candidates are doing everything they can to get them out. On this, the biggest day of Primary Season 2008, here's what Washington is watching:

-- The Senate is in session today, where they continue working on an economic stimulus package of their own devising, as opposed to the House version. Democratic leaders added another billion dollars to the bill that would increase funding for heating bills for those with low incomes, a move seemingly aimed at a few Northeastern and Midwestern moderate Republicans who could be among the 60 votes needed to substitute their version. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and OMB Director Jim Nussle testify on the president's $3.1 trillion budget today as well. House leaders are apparently taking another few days to themselves, while President Bush hangs out with racing champ Jimmie Johnson today.

-- Today's festivities kick off in Charleston, West Virginia, where delegates to the state convention kick off at 9 a.m. and will report first. Hours later, at 7 p.m., Georgia slams its polling place doors. At 8 p.m., watch for Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Arkansas is finished by 8:30. Kansas, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico and New York close at 9 p.m. Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Utah finish up by 10:00 p.m., while California polls close at 11:00 p.m. And for those poor reporters who have to cover Alaska, their polling will finish at 1:30 a.m. Eastern time.

-- This column is putting a hard cap of 1 a.m. for bed time. More than 8 million voters will cast ballots in California, the San Francisco Chronicle predicts. 2 million early ballots and absentees will be released shortly after polls close, but the night is going to continue for a while. Los Angeles County, for one, predicts it will be at least 4 a.m. Pacific -- that's when most Washington-based writers will be on their second caffeinated beverage of choice -- until all their precincts are in. In fact, San Diego (strong McCain territory), San Bernardino and Riverside plan to be finished by 8 a.m. Pacific Time, right about the time tomorrow when everyone in Washington is beginning to entertain the notion of lunch. Bottom line: Don't punish yourself. Go to bed early. You'll sleep through hours of babbling about no decision being made.

-- The expectations game is in full swing: Advisers to Hillary Clinton raised the bar yesterday, saying they expect to be ahead in total delegates by tonight, while not raising it so high as to suggest the race will be over before March, at the earliest, or the convention, at the latest. Barack Obama backers said in a memo they expect to be within 100 delegates by night's end, which, says NBC's Mark Murray, is a low bar. Still, Mark Penn has a point: The race has tightened, but never underestimate what the voters (and a few tears) will do. Then again, is the real mood in Obama-land just less than restrained ebullience? For the first time, some on his team believe he can actually pull out a Super Tuesday win.

-- On the GOP side, the game is playing out favorably for everyone but John McCain. Mitt Romney needs only to survive, which might include a California win or at least a strong showing, to continue his race, if he wants to. Mike Huckabee needs to sweep the South -- a tougher goal, to be sure -- and be more than a place for Romney voters to hide. McCain, though, needs a big night to beat expectations, and he's starting by tamping down California's importance. McCain will likely win more states and more delegates, and the question for other campaigns then becomes: Will the media treat him as the conquering hero with any win, or will someone dare to suggest he underperformed?

-- One thing is clear: McCain and Romney don't like each other very much, and both of their campaigns think they have the silver bullet that could end the other's White House bid. Romney is up with a spot that might look more at home as a contender for the Oscar for short animation, hitting McCain on his perceived proximity to Hillary Clinton on many issues, while McCain has a spot on national cable slamming Romney for not being behind Ronald Reagan and suggesting he's not a true Republican. If this race continues beyond this evening's vote counts, more of the same mud will be slung.

-- McCain's problems go deeper than a few Romney ads, though. Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh spent a large part of his show yesterday spewing vitriol at the Arizona Senator, and it's likely his three hours of air time today will be dedicated to the same task. Former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, another person not exactly tight with Limbaugh, sent the radio host a letter urging him, for the good of the GOP, to stop bashing McCain, as Politico's Mike Allen writes. In the letter, Dole summarizes what may be the best hope of reuniting the Republican Party: "Two terms for the Clintons are enough," he wrote.

-- As Chris Cillizza points out, McCain knows how important the talk radio wing is to the GOP. He healed rifts with Jerry Falwell and others on the conservative right. Could a battle against the Clintons be enough to heal the new rifts? Then again, could lasting damage be done by the GOP's internal factions if McCain faces down with Obama? We thought these kinds of blood feuds were the Democratic Party's specialty.

-- Democrats have avoided name-calling on television ads, but that doesn't mean they're not taking their negative cases directly to voters. Hillary Clinton dropped mail in Tulsa, Oklahoma -- a state many believed she would win handily -- hitting Barack Obama on the "present" votes, as Ben Smith reports. More Clinton mail landed in Massachusetts, where the race is incredibly tight, suggesting Obama lacks a plan to curtail foreclosure rates, voted for "Dick Cheney's energy bill" and hits him on raising the Social Security tax cap, as National Journal's Linda Douglass reports. It's not all Clinton: Smith writes Obama's negative mail hit voters' homes last week.

-- Staffer Profile Of The Day: There are two ways to know you've made it. One: Be a clue in a New York Times crossword puzzle. Two: Get your very own dot matrix in the Wall Street Journal. If nothing else comes of this adventure, Carl Forti, a former official at the NRCC who now serves as Romney's national political director, has made it. The profile: A strategist leading up to Super Tuesday and the decisions he's got to make, including, perhaps most importantly, where to go for the Super Bowl.

-- Today On The Trail: Why don't presidential candidates just get absentee ballots? McCain has a last-minute rally in San Diego before heading home to Phoenix, where he'll hold an election-night celebration. Huckabee will be in Charleston, participating in the state's presidential nominating convention before heading home to North Little Rock and a party with supporters in the big city. Romney, too, is in Charleston, before heading back to Belmont, Massachusetts to vote and Boston to thank supporters. Clinton will do morning media hits around the country before voting in Chappaqua and thanking supporters in New York City, and Obama votes in Chicago before hanging out with several thousand of his closest friends to watch results roll in.