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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Harris Up In NRCC Poll | Blog Home Page | Franken Actually Electable? »

Morning Thoughts: Lone Star

Good Friday morning. We were so caught up with Valentine's Day fever that we missed one of the most important events of the year. Like swallows returning to Capistrano, Major League Baseball players and prospects flocked to Arizona and Florida yesterday to offer themselves for the teams. Back in Washington, here's what's making news:

-- The House is in pro forma session again today, having cut out early for yet another long weekend. The Senate joins them in fake session. House and Senate Republicans head to the White House to sit down with President Bush, having promised to stay in Washington until the FISA bill gets fixed. Later today, the president meets with Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN.

-- On the campaign trail, it is a dangerous strategy to rely on super delegates to win a convention, as Hillary Clinton is finding out this morning. Clinton lost at least five votes yesterday, and no election had even been held. Two supers moved from Clinton's column to the undecided camp, while three, including two fairly important ones, switched allegiances to Barack Obama: Reps. David Scott and John Lewis, both Georgia Democrats and the latter a Civil Rights-era giant, said they will cast votes for Obama. The Illinois senator won Scott's district with more than 80% of the vote, while Lewis' district went about 3-1 for Obama.

-- Having lost eight elections in a row, facing the fact that inevitability is not the answer, losing a key segment of the Democratic electorate -- African Americans -- by four or five to one margins, Clinton's road is getting more difficult by the day. Her strategy of building a big lead among super delegates worked, but now she's got to keep them in line. Given the fact they can change their own minds at any moment, that's not an easy task, and Scott and Lewis abandoning her could be just the tip of the iceberg. While Bill and Chelsea work the phones, uncommitted super delegates see the Clinton campaign is not inevitable even among their own ranks, making everyone's job inside the camp that much harder.

-- She did get some good news, though. After 17,000 provisional ballots were counted a week and a half late, Clinton won New Mexico by a slim margin of just under 2,000 votes. Exit polls had suggested Obama would pull out the victory in the Super Tuesday state. Clinton's win gives her 14 of the state's 26 delegates, and a reasonable storyline: Make no mistake, she's not completely out of next Tuesday's contests in Hawaii and Wisconsin. If she puts together two wins there, it may not stop Obama in his tracks, but it will once again pull her back from the brink of elimination.

-- Meanwhile, two major unions will jump on the Obama bandwagon, too. Clinton has long enjoyed more union backing than Obama, though she split her support with John Edwards, but today the Service Employees union and the United Food and Commercial Workers will announce they support Obama, CNN and the NYT report. SEIU had split when Edwards was in the race, with most state factions backing him but with the Illinois and New York chapters holding enough sway to prevent a national endorsement. As the two groups throw their support to Obama and try to bring the Democratic coalition together, one has to wonder: Is it more valuable to be first on board, or is it more valuable to be the group that tips the scales in the winner's favor, once and for all?

-- On the Republican side, Mitt Romney put his campaign's 280-something delegates behind John McCain yesterday at what had to be an uncomfortable presser at Romney's presidential headquarters in Boston. McCain and Romney sat down privately before the press conference, and in his speech thanking the governor for his support, McCain signaled that he would send Romney on the trail for House, Senate and Gubernatorial candidates. Is that a pretty clear signal that Romney won't be getting the veep nod? Regardless, Romney did the smart thing yesterday, putting himself in line for the 2012 race, whoever that might feature.

-- McCain's campaign claims Romney's delegates put their candidate over the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Mike Huckabee has yet to agree, though regardless of whether McCain is there already, he'll be there soon. Still, in an email to supporters obtained by Jonathan Martin, Huckabee said he is banking everything on Texas, which he says will cost the campaign an additional $1.5 million. JMart's wise point of the day: "Who would have guessed a year ago that the race would come down to Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee hanging on to the March 4 Texas primary as their last, best chance?"

-- Huckabee said Romney is just part of the "me-too crowd" while addressing reporters in LaCrosse, Wisconsin, per CBS's Joy Lin. Among the two, there was little love lost during the nasty campaign, in which Romney attacked Huckabee ceaselessly and still lost Iowa. But by joining the bandwagon, Romney is doing himself favors moving forward, either in cabinet consideration or in line for the 2012 nomination. By staying off the bandwagon even as McCain claims victory, has Huckabee gone from good-natured underdog to actually harming his future chances?

-- True, it's not clear whether Romney can actually donate his 282 (per NBC's count) delegates to his new best friend, but parties are looking into just what the rules are. Romney won a bunch of delegates in caucus states, whose national convention delegates have not actually been allocated yet -- meaning they could easily go with Huckabee or anyone else, if they wanted to -- while rules are unclear in states like Massachusetts, First Read reports. In the last few years, it has been fashionable to bash the calendar. Perhaps next year unclear party rules and super delegates will be the gripe of choice.

-- Bad Form Of The Day: As members of both parties gathered in the Capitol Rotunda to pay last respects to the late Rep. Tom Lantos, Florida Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart called a procedural vote, sending both parties scrambling to fix the problem and pointing fingers for disrupting a service dedicated to the only Holocaust survivor ever to serve in Congress. As Mary Ann Akers reports, both parties erred, and both parties deserve the shame. Democrats did not recess the House during the service, while Republicans decided to try to pull a fast one. Everyone on the Hill, it would seem, owes the Lantos family an apology.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton is campaigning in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Lyndhurst, Ohio. Obama has rallies scheduled for Milwaukee, Oshkosh and Green Bay, while McCain has town halls set for Oshkosh and LaCrosse before heading to a Reagan Day Dinner in Milwaukee. Huckabee hits a pancake house in Milwaukee before jetting off to the Cayman Islands for a speech.