Morning Thoughts: Kid Gloves
Good Friday morning, and happy Groundhog Eve. As we come to the end of one of the best political weeks in recent memory, we've still got the Super Bowl and Super Tuesday to look forward to. Only after that do we all get some sleep. Here's what Washington's watching this morning:
-- The House and Senate are out of session without having come up with an economic stimulus plan. Democrats fell a few votes short of the 60 votes they needed yesterday, so Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is going to have to wait for wayward Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to come back. House Democrats finish their annual retreat in Williamsburg today, where they will hear from Ben Bernanke today before talking with the press.
-- The closer to a primary, the less likely an actual debate will take place. Last night, Democrats Clinton and Obama didn't debate so much as they had a friendly chat for ninety minutes. A long discussion on the war in Iraq jumped out at most people, as it was precisely not where Clinton wanted to spend her time. But Clinton still looked the role of the front-runner while Obama played the challenger. That's not to say he's trailing by twenty points, but Obama isn't acting like he's ahead. Given the fate of the front-runner in this campaign so far, maybe that's a good thing for him.
-- Still, unlike the Republican debate from Wednesday, the Democrats got along, and even acted kind to each other. Far from a snub, Obama pulled a chair out for Clinton and whispered something in her ear at the end, even going as far to assert that his chief rival would be on anyone's vice presidential short list. As Ben Smith writes, it's incredibly unlikely that Clinton would show up on anyone's shortlist, but it was a nice gesture.
-- In fact, it's unlikely that this next election, on February 5, will settle anything. Both campaigns seem unwilling to engage the other on their territory, meaning the contest is a war of attrition. And with his massive $32 million haul in January, Obama's camp has realized that: They're already putting ads on television aimed at Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland, all of which hold caucuses or primaries between February 9 and February 12, Advertising Age reports. If you're not a resident of a state that holds its contest February 5, don't worry: The campaign will come to you.
-- Assuming the race won't be over by the end of February 5 is contingent upon that day splitting for both candidates, and there are some indications that scenario will occur. For it to do so, Obama has to win several caucus states, including Kansas, Minnesota, Alaska and others. In Minnesota, at least, he still has some catching up to do: A Minnesota Public Radio poll finds him trailing by seven points. That's probably nothing a little advertising can't fix. His new ad campaign will run into the eight figures, the Washington Post writes.
-- On the GOP side, John McCain looks more and more like the eventual nominee, but he's facing a base divided more than at any time since Ross Perot came on the scene. He's got some serious making up to do with the conservative base, and whatever he tries probably won't work. Even former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, a long-time Romney backer, is trying to tackle McCain, saying the Arizonan is "allied with Democrats," according to The Swamp. But some conservatives, including Grover Norquist and Richard Land, say there's hope in McCain's positions after all, the Times writes. In an effort to get back in the good graces of the GOP, McCain will even address the Conservative Political Action Committee next week, an event he missed last year which his campaign considers a big mistake.
-- One other issue McCain will have to deal with: Questions about his age, especially next to someone as youthful-looking as Obama. When taking out a line of credit for his campaign, the Washington Post fronts today, McCain's bank went so far as to make him get a life insurance policy in case he didn't survive the grueling pace of a campaign. The loan saved his campaign, though the life insurance policy is sure to have tongues wagging. In a general, watch for age to play some sort of role, though subtly, not overtly, in the Democratic opponent's message.
-- Ron Paul finished a campaign swing through Maine today where early Republican caucuses will take place. The campaign -- along with Republican observers in the state -- seriously thinks they can win there, given the lack of attention from other candidates and the independent nature of Mainers. But wasn't that the argument for Ron Paul's soon-to-be success in New Hampshire as well? It didn't work that way, as Paul finished exactly where polls suggested he would. Paul should be doing something better: While he raised a lot of money, he also spent it, burning through $17.7 million in the third quarter. What, exactly, did that buy? Six delegates thus far. If Paul can't do something in Maine, he's really out of practical opportunities. Give Paul and his followers credit, though: He raised more in the last three months of the year than any other Republican, the LA Times writes.
-- Celebrity Gossip Of The Day: Everyone noticed certain guests in the audience last night, including Diane Keaton, Steven Spielberg, Brad Whitford and even Pierce Brosnan. As Chuck Todd notes, they make good cutaway shots, but the don't do much to help Democrats get over the notion that they're tied to Hollywood. The image was one the Republican National Committee couldn't pass up: They happily spotlighted it in a post-debate release.
-- Today On The Trail: Huckabee rallies in Oklahoma City before heading to Tulsa, followed by stops in the northwest corner of his home state and Springfield, Missouri. McCain has rallies planned for Chesterfield and Villa Park, Missouri, while Mitt Romney brings his tour to Thornton, Colorado. Ron Paul meets supporters in Colorado Springs before heading to a rally in Denver. Obama holds a roundtable in Albuquerque and a rally in Santa Fe, while Clinton holds town hall meetings in San Diego and San Francisco before fundraising in the Bay Area.


