Morning Thoughts: California Dreaming
Good Monday morning. We suppose today is Super Monday, or Super Tuesday Eve, but we defer to the wisdom of others on such designations. John McCain has a rally at Faneuil Hall in Boston today; any chance his camp regrets that move in the face of what are definitely going to be some surly Patriots fans?
-- The Senate is back this afternoon to take up a bill to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act before voting on cloture for the economic stimulus bill by late this afternoon. Don't start anticipating checks from the government, though: The House and Senate still have issues to work out, and it's unclear that Majority Leader Harry Reid even has the 60 votes necessary to cut off debate.
-- On the presidential campaign trail, candidates on both sides are looking beyond February 5 while desperately scrambling for every last delegate tomorrow. The consensus, though, remains that while the Democratic race is likely to stretch well beyond Super Tuesday, there is a chance the John McCain could wrap up the nomination tomorrow. Many top media types are flocking to Arizona for McCain's victory party; far fewer will head to Boston for Mitt Romney's celebration. While it remains unlikely that McCain will wrap things up tomorrow, the media will be there if he decides to do so.
-- For both parties, simply by virtue of its size, California is becoming the story the media wants to report after Tuesday. McCain and Romney added last-minute stops there in the hours before polls close -- Romney tonight in Long Beach, McCain tomorrow in San Diego -- and both Democrats are advertising heavily and sending top surrogates, including Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama (though Obama, rallying at UCLA yesterday, made more news when First Lady Maria Shriver, a Kennedy and close friend of Oprah, joined her to endorse Michelle's husband). In Iowa, as John Edwards took a narrow second-place finish over Clinton, the New York Senator actually scored one more delegate. Given the way California allocates its delegates, on both sides, it's entirely possible that the vote winner will not be the delegate winner.
-- The latest RCP California Average shows Clinton up by just six-tenths of a point while McCain has a 3.2-point lead. Polls in both parties have narrowed incredibly in the last few weeks. Still, newspaper deadlines are likely to be missed, Mark Halperin and the LA Times report. If both parties' races are so incredibly close, the 20% of ballots that will not be counted until after Tuesday is sure to put a hitch in anyone's hopes of calling the race.
-- While the Patriots and the New York Football Giants were trudging out of the locker room after halftime, Super Bowl watchers in Washington, D.C. caught a glimpse of a Kennedy-esque ad, one of the few this cycle that's been entirely in the candidate's voice. Obama, whose campaign ran the ad in 24 states that will hold primaries or caucuses between February 5 and February 12, ended with a line seemingly straight out of RFK's mouth: "The world as it is is not the world as it should be," he said. The RNC, perhaps increasingly concerned with the potentials of an Obama candidacy, zinged the candidate, saying the ad "will play as well during this year's Super Bowl as his Bears did in last year's," NBC/NJ's Anburajan reports. Ouch, low blow. Still, it was a bargain. Chief strategist David Axelrod told the New York Times the ads cost just $250,000 to run.
-- Obama running Super Sunday ads, outraising Clinton and close, if not leading, in February 5 states: Should he be considered the front-runner? He probably doesn't want the mantle yet, but it may be forced upon him soon: Three well-respected polls have the race close to margins of error nationally -- in fact, CBS News shows a tied race and USA Today/Gallup puts Clinton ahead by just one. Clinton still leads the RCP National Average by 5.6 points, but it's becoming easier to imagine her giving up that lead.
-- An interesting aside: Voters tend to think that Romney and Clinton would handle the economy better than McCain or Obama. While it certainly appears the latter two have all the momentum in the world, the former two could come back, on the backs of what the Washington Post calls a worse national opinion on the economy than any Americans have held in the last 15 years. More than 80% of those polled in the Washington Post/ABC News survey said the state of the economy is "not so good" or "poor," and close to 60% said a recession is already at hand. That's bad news for the party in the White House, but it can signal a reversal of fortunes for two pols vying to get there.
-- On the other hand, don't expect the war in Iraq to completely leave the scene. President Bush will ask Congress for $70 billion for war funding in that country and Afghanistan today, eliciting statements from both Democrats (and probably all the Republicans as well) as war spending tops $1 trillion -- with a big giant "T" -- for the first time, as CongressDaily reports (subs req'd). A future battle for Congress and the White House to face: That over the use of supplemental funding, which were intended to provide for emergencies. Instead, more than 90% of war funding in the last few years has come in the form of supplementals, the CBO reports. Deficit hawks on both sides don't like the extra cash, saying it amounts to a cooking of the books.
-- Endorsement Of The Day: It takes Obama, receiver of endorsements both moving and bizarre, to get the Grateful Dead back together. Today, the band will play a concert on Obama's behalf at a San Francisco theater, a spokesman told Reuters on Friday. That's probably not as powerful an endorsement as Shriver's, and not as powerful as a Gore endorsement would be (apparently he's nervous about jinxing Obama's success, Noam Scheiber writes). But if Obama's looking for a way to rock out, the Dead are the way to go.
-- Today On The Trail: Clinton holds events in New Haven, Connecticut before heading to Worcester, Massachusetts. Late tonight she'll hold a town hall meeting in New York City that will be broadcast on the Hallmark Channel before joining David Letterman. Obama has a rally at the Meadowlands -- a fortuitous location, one would think -- followed by stops in Hartford and Boston. McCain, as we mentioned, rallies at Faneuil Hall, meets the media in Hamilton, New Jersey and has a presser scheduled for New York City. Huckabee heads to rallies in Chattanooga and Blountville, Tennessee and a rally in Texarkana before heading home to Little Rock, and Romney campaigns in Nashville and Atlanta before rallying in Long Beach. Ron Paul has a speech in Minneapolis today and will meet with the press there.


