Four-term Illinois Republican Mark Kirk, one of the most moderate members of the GOP caucus, faces a repeat of what proved to be a surprisingly difficult challenge from 2006 when he managed just a six-point victory. Vote ratings place Kirk virtually in the middle of the House on economic, social and foreign policy issues, and is a prominent member of the centrist Tuesday Group and the Suburban Agenda Caucus, which sought to protect some of the most vulnerable Republicans last cycle.

Kirk's moderation has served him well in his district, which runs north of Chicago along Lake Michigan and close to the Wisconsin border. He is one of the few Republicans to represent a district President Bush lost not once but twice. Still, two years ago, marketing executive Dan Seals scored 47% of the vote to Kirk's 53%, the closest race the incumbent faced since his initial bid in 2000.

After Seals easily took care of former White House aide Jay Footlik in the February 5 primary, his campaign released a poll showing what could be another tight race. The poll, conducted by Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang between 2/7-8, surveyed 400 likely voters and tested Kirk and Seals.

General Election Matchup
Kirk 46
Seals 39

Seals keeps the Republican under the crucial 50% mark, but it's still an uphill battle for the Democrat. Kirk survived in 2006 because he is what NRCC chair Tom Cole refers to as a paranoid incumbent, one smart enough to see a difficult battle approach and to over-prepare in any case. Before the primary, Seals held about $625,000 in cash reserves, while Kirk had close to $1.8 million on hand. Making Seals' chances better, the DCCC did not target the seat last time around, though they are likely to do so this time.

Kirk outspent Seals almost two-to-one in 2006. But John Kerry won the district by a six-point margin and Al Gore by four points. While Kirk has survived tight races before, he may be the last Republican to hold the district for a long time. Whether his abdication comes as his own choice or when voters kick him out will depend on the incumbent's ability to survive what could be another terrible landscape for Republicans.