Democrats searching for a strong candidate in Minnesota seemed initially skeptical that a comedian would make a good candidate. But a new poll, conducted for Minnesota Public Radio by the Humphrey Institute, shows former Saturday Night Live staple Al Franken might have a chance in his bid against first-term incumbent Norm Coleman.

The survey, conducted 1/20-27, tested the state's Senate race among 917 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Along with Coleman and Franken, attorney Mike Ciresi, Jim Cohen and Professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, all Democrats, were tested. Republicans might claim the sample was skewed by party registration. 52% of respondents said they were Democrats, while 34% said they were Republicans and just 14% identified themselves as independents.

General Election Matchups
Franken 43
Coleman 40

Coleman 43
Ciresi 38

Coleman 47
Nelson-Pallmeyer 29

Coleman 46
Cohen 31

Primary Election Matchup
(478 Dems only, margin +/- 4.5%)
Franken 42
Ciresi 18
Nelson-Pallmeyer 3
Cohen 2

Cross-tabs, only made available in the Franken-Coleman matchup, show Franken trailing by a single point among men while leading by seven among women. Coleman enjoys a 16-point lead among independents, though the Democratic base has yet to coalesce behind Franken, meaning his numbers will only go up. Franken has big leads among those who choose the economy, the war in Iraq or health care as the top issue facing the country.

But Franken still has to make it through either a party convention or a primary, and that process begins when Minnesotans go to caucus on Tuesday. If Franken supporters win races as delegates to the state convention -- regardless of which presidential candidate they support -- he can box out Ciresi. But Ciresi has run for office before, and he's got the backing of a good portion of the Democratic establishment.

Both candidates have promised to concede if they lose at the convention. But those promises have been made, and broken, before. Ciresi would benefit most from a convention win, as it will be difficult for him to overcome Franken's large lead in the name recognition primary. Still, it is likely the primary race will not conclude when the convention ends, and that no matter which candidate wins, the other will press on.

When Democrats get to a general election, they do have the chance to knock out Coleman. Just 50% of those surveyed said they somewhat or strongly approved of Coleman's job performance. Contrast that to the 66% who approve of freshman Senator Amy Klobuchar's job performance and Coleman looks like he might be in trouble.

Still, he will be well-funded. Through the fourth quarter, Coleman had more than $6 million in the bank. Franken has outraised him through several quarters, but Coleman's strong head start puts him well ahead of both the top Democratic candidates. Franken had $3.1 million in the bank through December, while Ciresi, who has given more than half a million dollars to his own campaign, held just under $1 million in reserve.