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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Huck Wins WV | Blog Home Page | Early Calls Good For Obama, Huck »

Early Exits: Good For Clinton?

The first wave of exits, which only characterize the demographics of the voting population, may show an early advantage to Hillary Clinton, though Barack Obama has reason to smile as well. And as AP reports, turnout is once again higher among Democrats than among Republicans.

About half of Democrats said the economy was the most pressing issue, while just 3 in 10 said the war in Iraq mattered most to their vote. Clinton has done better among economic voters, while Obama has done best among Iraq voters. Health care, another issue on which those who care most favor Clinton, makes up the top concern of another two in ten voters.

Younger voters are once again making up a smaller portion of the electorate, down from the 22% of the electorate in Iowa that was under 30. In general, the older the electorate, the better it's been for Clinton. As in other primaries, a much higher percentage of Clinton voters cited experience as most important -- about half -- while three quarters of Obama voters cited change as the top reason for favoring their candidate. Experience has generally made up a larger portion of Clinton's vote in previous contests.

Half of voters had made their mind up a month ago -- seemingly a good sign for Clinton, who led in many polls in Super Tuesday states -- while about one in ten voters made up their minds today and another tenth within the last three days. Those proportions are approximately the same as exit polls showed in Iowa and South Carolina, while more New Hampshire voters tended to make up their minds late. Still, that could be good for Obama: When voters broke late in New Hampshire, they broke away from him. If they're not breaking late in Super Tuesday states, they may not be breaking toward Clinton.