Despite Democratic worries about their prospects of keeping the late Rep. Julia Carson's Indianapolis-based Seventh District, a new poll conducted for an Indiana-based political report shows her grandson, city-county councilmember Andre Carson, well ahead of his Republican rival.

The DCCC has spent more than $44,000 on keeping the seat, though while Republicans are excited for the prospects of State Rep. Jon Elrod, they have yet to follow suit.

The poll, conducted by Gauge Market Research for Howey Politics Indiana, surveyed 300 likely voters between 2/17-18 for a margin of error of +/- 5.7%. Andre Carson and Elrod were tested. 54% of the sample consisted of Democratic or lean-Democratic voters, while 39% were Republicans or those who leaned Republican. Seven percent were independents.

General Election Matchup with leaners
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / Wht / Blk)
Carson 54 / 85 / 15 / 43 / 50 / 58 / 38 / 90
Elrod 36 / 11 / 78 / 10 / 43 / 28 / 49 / 4

Carson's advantage comes primarily from African Americans, who say they plan to cast ballots for him by a more than twenty-to-one margin. The district is 29% African American, as was 28% of the poll's sample size. Many of the district's white voters are Republican -- in fact, despite the district being primarily urban, Republican Governor Mitch Daniels does almost as well within the Seventh District as he does statewide.

Carson boasts an impressive 42%-20% favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, while 93% of district residents know him. Only Daniels is better-known inside the district. Nearly three in four district voters know Elrod, though only half of those who know him have formed an opinion. He has a favorable rating of 27%, and 11% see him unfavorably. The poll has to be welcome news for Democrats, though the money the DCCC spent can provide some peace of mind.