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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Clinton Targets Obama, McCain | Blog Home Page | Surrogates Take Heat »

Dem Out In Swing OR District

Six-term Oregon Democrat Darlene Hooley announced yesterday she will not run again this year, the Portland Oregonian reports. Hooley, 68, had been hospitalized late last year with a lung condition that prevented her from returning to Washington for a month. Her health troubles, combined with too much fundraising and travel between Washington and Portland, contributed to her decision.

Hooley's Fifth District rings suburban and exurban Portland to the South. Stretching south to Salem and west to the Pacific Ocean, the district includes both Oregon State University and the company that makes Tillamook cheddar cheese. The district holds heavily Republican and heavily Democratic areas, and the difference comes from Washington County, where independent voters determine the fates of candidates both in the Fifth and statewide.

The retiring Democrat, who first won her seat in 1996, has faced a series of competitive elections throughout her tenure, never winning with more than 57% of the vote and frequently finding the race much closer than that. In 2006, she beat Lake Oswego businessman Mike Erickson by a 54%-43% margin, though Erickson spent an impressive $1.8 million to Hooley's $2 million.

The district is competitive -- President Bush won it both times he ran, though by narrow margins of a little under 5,000 votes each time. National Republicans are excited for Erickson's chances this year; he's raised more than $170,000 so far and maintains over $130,000 cash on hand. Early in the cycle, that's not bad for the relatively inexpensive Portland and Astoria media markets.

The wealthy businessman has also shown a willingness to fund his own campaign, listing nearly $1.6 million in debts and obligations to himself in his year-end FEC reports. If he invests significantly more money in the race, he could outpace other candidates. Erickson will be aided by Senator Gordon Smith, who is running for re-election this year, though potentially wounded by a presidential battle. Once considered a swing state, Oregon is now safely in the Democratic column.

Possible candidates on the Democratic side include Senate President Peter Courtney, State Rep. Brian Clem and State Senator Kurt Schrader, along with his wife, Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader. While Democrats will have to rush to catch up with Erickson on the fundraising front, the seat will not be a blow-out on either side. Both parties have a good chance at what will turn out to be one of the most competitive seats in the country.