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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« DNC Files McCain Complaint | Blog Home Page | Dems Worried In IN? »

Dem Competes In AL

When Rep. Terry Everett, an eight-term Republican from southeast Alabama, announced he would not run for re-election next year, Democrats crowed that yet another House Republican was abandoning ship. Still, few but the most optimistic Democrats thought the party had a realistic chance of taking the seat, which favored President Bush by 34 points in 2004 and by 23 in 2000. In fact, no Democrat has held the seat since 1965.

But tomorrow, Democrats will get a serious candidate when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright makes his campaign official, the Montgomery Advertiser and the Associated Press report. Bright won re-election in 2006 by a wide 58%-33% margin, and in representing the state's second-largest city, he brings a solid electoral foundation to the race.

The district, which stretches from Montgomery south to the border with the Florida panhandle, includes most of the city, which has a population of just over 200,000, as well as several counties where African Americans make up a majority of the voting population -- they comprise nearly 30% of the district as a whole. Still, more conservative areas toward the south-central section of the state make up the bulk of the district's voters.

Bright will head to heavily Republican territory to make his announcement, speaking in Ozark, in the southeast corner of the state, at the Dale County Courthouse. His family, Bright said, comes from the area, where he grew up, and he told local media he wanted to make his announcement surrounded by family and friends.

The only trouble Everett ever faced was in his first election, in 1992, when he took just 49% of the vote against two candidates, one of whom was George C. Wallace, the former governor's son. In subsequent re-election bids, Everett never dipped below 63%. Bright may benefit, though, because the Mayor's office in Montgomery is non-partisan, meaning at least a few Republican voters in the district are used to casting ballots for him.

Still, the crowded Republican field is likely to produce a candidate who should be considered the favorite. State Reps. David Grimes and Jay Love are already in the race, as is State Senator Harri Anne Smith. Smith and Grimes have yet to file with the FEC, and Love loaned his campaign $300,000 and raised an additional $70,000 through December. Republicans will face off in the state's June 3 primary.