Having represented Texas's Fourteenth District, an area larger than Massachusetts, since 1997, winning easily in his five reelection bids since then and galvanizing a stunningly enthusiastic grassroots movement for his Presidential campaign, Republican Rep. Ron Paul should be able to coast to another reelection for his House seat this year. Yet some political observers are claiming that Ron Paul may have a hard time winning the Republican Primary for his seat when Texas voters head to the polls March 4.

Rumors increased last week when Paul's campaign announced it was significantly scaling back its Presidential campaign and would concentrate on his Congressional reelection bid, causing speculation that Paul had reason to fear his seat is in jeopardy.

In an interview with Politics Nation yesterday, Friendswood city councilman Chris Peden, who is challenging Paul, said their internal polls did show him in the lead. "Our campaign staff wouldn't be working as hard if we didn't think we would win. We feel good about this campaign; momentum is growing in our favor," Peden said.

Paul spokesman Jesse Benton told Politics Nation that while the campaign can't take any votes in the district for granted, the campaign's internal polls show Paul with a "sizable lead".

Peden has been advertising himself as a "Pro-Life, Pro-Family, Christian conservative who believes in smaller government, the free market, and personal responsibility." He poses this in sharp contrast to Paul's libertarian positions which he says often conflict with the district's more mainline conservative views, including on foreign policy matters.

Peden is also hitting Paul hard for what he claims has been Paul's indifference to the interests of the district, such as Paul's opposition to funding NASA, the headquarters of which, due to 2004 redistricting, is now just a few miles from the district boundary. The Galveston County Daily News wrote this weekend that Paul was either less than fully informed or completely unaware of several problems within the district.

Just last week, two House incumbents in Maryland, Democrat Al Wynn and Republican Wayne Gilchrest, lost their respective primaries amid charges they were out of touch with their party's ideological base. Paul's campaign realizes that his only chance of losing the primary would be conservative voters moving over to support Peden. In response, Paul's campaign has been releasing news of endorsements from prominent conservative groups throughout the state.

The whirlwind of publicity Paul's presidential campaign has received has no doubt filtered into his district. He is also well liked by those who cite his history of personally reaching out to individual concerns of his constituents. An upset would certainly shock and outrage Paul fans across the country. The likelihood of that occurring depends partially on which campaign one believes.

-- Greg Bobrinskoy