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« Members' Legal Bills Pile | Blog Home Page | Romney Keeps On McCain »

Senate Reports Show Tight Races

Federal Election Commission reports were due at midnight last night, though despite the deadline most reports aren't available yet. But a look at numbers available through other media outlets shows, perhaps unsurprisingly, that Democrats are in good position to pick up seats next year.

The states that might have vulnerable incumbents and tight races next year:

Alaska (Fairbanks Daily News Miner)
Ted Stevens -- $207,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand

While Stevens' detailed report is not yet available, the troubled incumbent, who is under investigation for his relationship with an Alaska company, has blown through at least $700,000 so far. Once the report is out, it will reveal how much Stevens is spending on lawyers.

Colorado (From the Boulder Daily Camera)
Mark Udall -- $1.1 million raised, $3.6 million in the bank
Bob Schaffer -- $646,000 raised, $2.1 million on hand

Udall's lead has closed in the last twenty-four hours, though. President Bush traveled to Colorado last night for a fundraiser benefiting Schaffer's campaign. Schaffer started the race at a financial disadvantage, but his fundraising clip has been impressive, and while Udall will likely enjoy a big cash advantage, the Republican will at least be competitive.

Louisiana (Per the Hotline's indispensable Quinn McCord)
Mary Landrieu $1.2 million raised, approximately $4.1 million in the bank
John Kennedy $501,000 raised, approximately $472,000 in the bank

Landrieu hasn't given up yet, and she's got a big lead over the one candidate the NRSC actually thinks can pick up a seat for them. Still, many of Landrieu's voters have left the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, and she faces a seriously uphill battle to stay in Congress.

Maine (According to PolitickerME)
Susan Collins -- $963,000 pulled in, $3.9 million saved up
Tom Allen -- $813,000 picked up, $2.5 million left over

Collins led polls in the Fall, and she's in much better position than the average Republican incumbent. Still, Allen is no wallflower, and once they start spending, the race will close.

Minnesota (Thanks, Minneapolis Star-Tribune)
Norm Coleman -- $1.7 million raised, $6 million cash on hand
Al Franken -- $1.9 million raised, $3.1 million cash on hand
Mike Ciresi -- $807,000 pulled in, $984,000 in the bank

Ciresi's fundraising was greatly aided by his own checkbook. The second-time Senate candidate, who's won some institutional backing over comedian Franken, gave himself more than $500,000 last quarter. Franken and Coleman, meanwhile, are still raising big bucks, but many have commented on Franken's burn rate, which is pretty high.

Nebraska (According to the AP)
Mike Johanns -- $1.5 million raised, $1 million left

Former Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb has yet to make a decision on a race, though even if he jumps in Johanns remains a heavy favorite.

New Mexico (Courtesy DailyKos and the AP)
Tom Udall -- $1 million raised, $1.7 million on hand
Heather Wilson -- $516,000 pulled in, $1.1 million in the bank
Steve Pearce -- $425,000 made, $820,000 cash on hand

As Udall raises more than the two Republicans combined, the GOP has to be worried about a competitive primary that winds up depleting every penny Wilson and Pearce have, leaving them at an even greater disadvantage in November.

Oregon (Per the Eugene Register-Guard)
Gordon Smith -- $900,000 raised, $4.4 million on hand
Jeff Merkley -- $619,000 raised, $528,000 on hand
Steve Novick -- $219,000 raised, $292,000 left over

Novick has spent money on television ads, but Merkley is still much better-known. Both trail Smith in money and polls, but Oregon is a state the DSCC can play in relatively inexpensively. If Merkley has to spend his way past Novick, though, he will start a general election race in an even bigger hole.

South Dakota (Writes the Sioux Falls Argus Leader)
Tim Johnson -- $726,000 raised, $2.7 million cash on hand
Joel Dykstra -- $56,000 raised, $137,000 in the bank

NRSC chairman John Ensign hinted to RCP that a higher-profile candidate might be headed toward a showdown with Johnson. Until that happens, if it does, Johnson will skate to re-election after winning his last battle, against now-Senator John Thune, by a mere 500 votes.

Virginia (Via the Washington Post and RCP sources)
Mark Warner -- $2.7 million raised, $2.9 million left over
Jim Gilmore -- $343,000 raised, $183,000 cash on hand

Warner's stunning fundraising pace continues, and it's all Gilmore can do to keep up. Without a faster pace, this race will be over before it begins.