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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« A Fine New Year For Franken | Blog Home Page | Dems Target Obama »

Romney's Delegate Fight Strategy

HENDERSON, Nevada - Meeting reporters in this Las Vegas suburb, Nevada's second-largest city, to accept an endorsement from an important state senator, Mitt Romney was hit by a barrage of questions from those who want to know why he is not competing more in South Carolina. That state, which holds its primary on the same day as Nevada's caucuses, will get far more attention on the Republican side than the state in which Romney intends to campaign Saturday.

"We plan to go all the way to the end of the process," he said last night, and a process is what the Republican race has become. On his seventh visit here, when few others of his party have shown up more than a handful of times, Romney's strategy has become clear: Looking ahead, his team may believe the GOP nomination will come down to a delegate fight the likes of which have not been seen for a hundred years.

By virtually every conceivable measure, Romney leads the Republican presidential race. He has won two of the first four contests. He owns more delegates than any other candidate, by far. And more people have cast votes for him than for any other contender. Still, many consider his campaign's collapse to be virtually inevitable. But as he campaigns two thousand miles from his nearest Republican rival, Romney's team may be the one laughing all the way to the GOP convention in Minneapolis.

Aside from a handful of staffers working on behalf of Ron Paul, Romney is virtually alone in the state: John McCain, who many believe to be the Republican front-runner, has a total of one staffer here. Still, Nevada offers 34 delegates. "I want as many of those as I can possibly get," Romney said. "My understanding of the presidential process is, you win the most delegates, and then you win the nomination."

Romney denied favoring Nevada over South Carolina. Campaign spokesman Eric Fehnstrom later pointed out to Politics Nation that Romney has gone back up with television ads in the Palmetto State, which will continue to air through the primary. In fact, Jonathan Martin reports, Romney is even increasing his television ad buys there. Romney has not run television spots in Nevada, instead sticking to radio.

Romney acknowledged that John McCain has a lead in polls in South Carolina, but he said things might not turn out as expected, noting that the pundits and the polls "have proven not to be very accurate so far."

"Coming off a strong win in Michigan, I think we're going to surprise folks," he said. Fehnstrom, though, was quick to tamp down those expectations. "South Carolina is John McCain territory. I'd be shocked if Mitt Romney were to win that state," he said. "I think we have a better chance here in Nevada."

Asked about the absence of a clear GOP favorite, Romney lavished praise on McCain, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, calling the group "such a strong field" of candidates.

That strong field, through four contests, has yet to thin. And as he continues to build delegates in places others are avoiding, the Romney hypothesis might prove prescient. "It may very well be a delegate fight at the end," Fehnstrom said. "But I think time will tell. February 5 is going to be a big day for everybody."

Earlier in the day, in Columbia, South Carolina, Romney engaged in a heated exchange with Associated Press reporter Glen Johnson over major GOP lobbyist Ron Kaufman's involvement in Romney's campaign. In Henderson, the issue didn't come up, though Johnson was in attendance again. The AP scribe, this time, did not ask a question.