LAS VEGAS, Nevada -- As campaigning draws to a close in the battle for Nevada's caucus delegates, candidates hit last minute mega-rallies around Las Vegas. And despite the state's less experienced caucus-going population, crowds were as massive as his initial forays into Iowa. The line outside the University of Nevada-Las Vegas stretched into the desert night, with those hoping to get in waiting expectantly for their turn at the metal detectors.

Still, the campaign may have reason to worry. Many of those who professed to back Obama said they either did not plan to caucus or were unable to do so. "I don't affiliate with either party," said Phil Cole, of Las Vegas, who says he does not plan to caucus. But Cole brought his son anyway, just to see Obama speak. Others said they had to work, or were simply unaware of their caucus locations.

Obama's message of change trumping experience seems to resonate with voters here much as it did in Iowa, where he won, and failed to do in New Hampshire, where he lost. "It's important to me to come up with new ways to handle problems," said Cheryl Martin, who plans to caucus for Obama tomorrow. A foreign policy voter, Martin said the fact that other candidates had more experience did not matter, and that Obama had a different form of appropriate judgment. "He's collecting a lot of intelligent people around him," she said.

As in Iowa, Obama has also attracted voters from across the spectrum. Lori Lemaster, a Republican, says if she had to vote in the GOP caucuses today, she would choose Mike Huckabee. While she says family issues are those that matter to her most, she is considering heading to her Democratic caucus tomorrow to vote for Obama. "He's fresh," she said, when asked why. "He doesn't owe any favors in Washington." And, she says, "he looks like a good family man."

Few Las Vegans are native to the state, and many transplants said this was their first election here. Alan Strait, a recent college graduate who plans to become a teacher, will attend his first caucus in Nevada instead of in his home state, Iowa. Strait has no problems with the rest of the field -- he says he will vote for Hillary Clinton if she makes it through to the general election in November, and while he likes John Edwards, "I don't think he's going to win" -- but Obama's vision on education tipped the scales for him. The first-time caucus-goer will join his neighbors at Cunningham Elementary School (typically of Las Vegas, on Jimmy Durante Boulevard).

Recent polls show Obama running significantly behind Clinton among Hispanics, a key voting bloc. If he is going to win here, he will need a big turnout among those who favored him in Iowa -- chiefly white liberals and intellectuals, coupled with independents and Republicans. The latest RCP Nevada Average shows him behind by 3.7 points, though turnout is anyone's guess.

The line stretching around campus to see him, in his final rally of the Nevada chapter of the campaign, holds within it the candidate's key to victory. If they turn out, he will once again surprise pundits with a big victory. If they stay home, decide to sleep in past the 11 a.m. caucus start time or just can't find their caucus location, Clinton looks headed for another win.