Morning Thoughts: Vegas, Baby
Good Thursday morning. Politics Nation lands this afternoon in Las Vegas, where Culinary Workers and teachers are still fighting over a few caucus locations. As they head to court, here's what else Washington is watching:
-- Nevada, once the ignored caucus, is becoming a key battleground where any of the top three candidates may take home a win. And like ethanol subsidies, there are key nerves each candidate should touch to arouse the interests of voters. Hillary Clinton yesterday made sure to remind voters that she's spent years challenging the proposed nuclear waste site at Yucca Mountain: "When I am President, Yucca Mountain will be off the table once and for all," she said, per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli. And, he writes, Clinton again argued that she offers a hands-on approach to governing, unlike chief rival Barack Obama.
-- A few miles south, it was Obama hitting Clinton on Social Security, criticizing her for supporting a cap on incomes over $250,000 and for asserting that the top 3% of wage-earners are middle class. Social Security used to be a third rail in politics. If Obama is going to really run a different kind of campaign, talking about a third-rail issue effectively is certainly one way to do so. The bottom line: The two aren't going after each other on race or gender, having decided those topics help no one. Instead, they're duking it out in a good old fashioned policy war. The candidate who proposes good solutions in 25 words or less may end up taking Nevada, and the entire nomination with it.
-- The Democratic race will finally be a real two-person race if John Edwards does not win here. Sounds like a long shot, right? Well he's only down 5 points in a Research 2000 survey and 10 points in an American Research Group poll. And with his significant labor backing, an important factor here, Edwards may just have a chance at an upset. Sure, they're only two polls, but wouldn't overcoming a 10-point gap be easier than coming back from the 28 points he's down in South Carolina? Despite conventional wisdom, Nevada could end up being Edwards' strongest state.
-- Meanwhile, Obama is tamping down expectations. Campaign manager David Plouffe called The Fix today to say that Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite in the Silver State. Plouffe is right about one thing: Expectations were set when the Culinary Workers endorsed his candidate, as if that mythical beast were somehow the missing piece of the puzzle key to a Nevada win. This campaign season has seen a spate of mismanaged expectations: That Clinton would finish a close second in Iowa, that Obama would run away with New Hampshire, and that Clinton would rack up something, anything bigger than 55% in Michigan. Plouffe, wisely, is trying to manage expectations before they manage him.
-- In South Carolina, top Mike Huckabee adviser David Beasley has a reputation as a tough campaigner. The former governor of the Palmetto State has seen his candidate nix previous negative ads, and if Huckabee is going to win there, he may need to turn negative on front-runner John McCain. We have no special insight into this, but an unnamed Huckabee adviser told CBN's David Brody that McCain's "free pass" is coming to an end. How negative Huckabee goes may depend on how far behind the next polls show him to be. But with just three days left before South Carolina Republicans vote, whatever is coming is coming soon.
-- No one seems to be getting good momentum from their wins this year, evidenced by the fact that no one has won more than a single contest, excepting Romney and his barely noticeable Wyoming victory. After winning Michigan, it is no longer Romney's head on the chopping block, but it may be McCain's. If the Arizonan can't win in South Carolina, his next win likely won't come until February 5. And by then, it might just be too late. Could it be that Mitt Romney, once given up for dead, is about to reassume the front-runner mantle? Substitute the words "John McCain" for "Mitt Romney" and "New Hampshire" for "Michigan" and we could have written this same paragraph a week ago.
-- Back in Washington, Karl Rove is optimistic about his party's chances next year, telling RNC members yesterday that both Clinton and Obama can be defeated, The Hill's Sam Youngman writes. The Architect wants to hit Clinton on spending and failure to extend the Bush tax cuts, along with her difficulties answering a question on immigrants' drivers licenses. Obama's key weakness, Rove says: Inexperience, and a habit of voting "present" in the Illinois State Senate. Will any Republican listen to Rove? In some ways, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are way ahead of him: Those precise lines of attack have been used many times before.
-- Today On The Trail: Edwards is in Henderson before heading to Los Angeles. Obama starts his day in San Francisco before ending in Las Vegas, and Clinton stops in Los Angeles and Santa Barbara. On the GOP side, John McCain is in Aiken, Mike Huckabee is in Clemson and Mitt Romney stops in Pauline and Greenville, South Carolina. Fred Thompson's bus tour continues, while Ron Paul stops by Fort Mill and Rock Hill. Rudy Giuliani stays in Florida, with events in Fort Walton Beach, Destin and Tallahassee.
-- Next dispatch comes your way from the Milwaukee airport or from Sin City. Keep watch for our new micro-reporting, as you get the latest details and color straight to your email, cell phone or any other new-fangled technological device.


