Good Thursday morning. Is the fact that we forgot there was another debate tonight a sign that there are just too many gatherings for us to pay attention anymore? With so many, we'd imagine some network would try to slip in some weird rule, knowing no campaign has time to read every single debate memo. If no one has yet, someone please try to get the candidates wearing funny hats or something.

-- The House is out of session for the week after two full days of work. The Senate picks up consideration of a bill reforming the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which is likely to bring a quick end to that bipartisan spirit we were talking about yesterday. The Senate Agriculture Committee today takes up the nomination of former North Dakota Governor Ed Schafer to round out the Cabinet as Agriculture Secretary, while the Senate Finance Committee continues work on an economic stimulus package as congressional leaders appear close to a deal.

-- As much as we mock it, tonight's debate actually does matter. It is perhaps the most important single moment of the campaign for Rudy Giuliani, sinking in recent Florida polls, who needs to pull off a big win in the state if his bid for the White House is going to continue. Tonight, as the field meets on stage for the first time without Fred Thompson, may be Giuliani's last chance.

-- A poll out today for Florida's major newspapers, though, shows Giuliani's best days may already be behind him. The survey, conducted for the St. Pete Times and the Miami Herald, among others, shows John McCain and Mitt Romney well ahead of the pack, statistically tied for first place, while Giuliani is tied for third with Mike Huckabee. It's a dramatic ten-point hole Hizzoner has to climb out of, when in November he enjoyed a 17-point lead in the state. "Giuliani, for all intents and purposes, has virtually no chance to win in Florida," pollster Rob Schroth said.

-- Thompson would have gotten a win had he only made his intentions to stick around painfully obvious, Jim Geraghty reports. Little-noticed amid the fray was Louisiana's caucuses, in which "Pro-life uncommitted" beat out, in order, John McCain, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. That place-holder name was reportedly put on the ballot when social conservatives became unsure that Thompson would still be on the ballot. Turns out he dropped out just hours before caucusing began. The order of finish is telling for other reasons as well: Mitt Romney, the only candidate with any organization in the state, finished third among candidates and fourth overall. Is this a sign that, in states that don't get attention, McCain is beginning to benefit from a snowball effect?

-- McCain is becoming the consensus front-runner, and Democrats are already planning their fall campaigns around him. Is there anything at all the other candidates can do to stop him? If there is, they'd better do it soon, writes Chuck Todd. That means tonight is likely going to mirror Monday's Democratic debate as one of the ugliest of the year. Romney and Giuliani have no other choice; for the sake of their own delegates, they need to bring McCain down a few pegs. And, as Michael Luo writes in the Times today, no one is going to be shy about hitting back at Romney.

-- If McCain is the Republican nominee, some members of the GOP are going to be very, very frustrated. In fact, it doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is -- many in the GOP are going to be frustrated anyway. Poll numbers continue to show what we're experiencing on the trail: That an overwhelming majority of Democrats are satisfied with their candidates while many fewer Republicans feel the same way. A new LA Times poll shows more than three quarters of Democrats say they are happy with their choices, while just 11% are dissatisfied. About half of Republicans are satisfied, while almost a quarter are dissatisfied. That satisfaction gap is going to translate, somehow, into November: Even if every Republican hates the Democratic nominee, it's much harder to turn voters out based on a negative premise -- "I'm going to vote against the Democrat" -- than a positive premise.

-- Give an inch and they'll take a mile: Hillary Clinton's campaign recently complained that a national advertising buy the Obama camp made constituted campaigning in Florida. When no one got outraged, NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports, Clinton's team began seriously considering holding public events in the state. The state offers no delegates, but it is still the last time before Super Tuesday that Democrats get to vote for a candidate. Given her standing in the race, Clinton virtually has to win there. She's ahead by almost 18 points in the latest RCP Florida Average, but she needs to be. Anything other than a big win is a huge defeat heading into the following week.

-- Reality Check Of The Day: Having lost Iowa, gotten thumped in New Hampshire and turning in a ridiculously low 4% showing in Nevada, John Edwards is beginning to think about the end of his race. Clinton and Obama are overlooking him as they take shots at each other, and while he can continue to hold on to the delegates he's accumulated so far, he's held recent conversations with both his rivals, as Dan Balz reports, and one sit-down with Clinton that generated a lot of talk. At this point, Edwards seems resigned to sitting back and hoping for a brokered convention. If he gets that, those weekend conversations will be the first of many between the three.

-- Today On The Trail: Edwards holds events in Greenwood and Seneca, while Obama meets voters in Kingstree, Beaufort and North Charleston and Clinton gives a speech on the economy in Greenville. She then travels to Anderson, South Carolina. Giuliani has a rally before the Boca Raton debate, while McCain raises money and holds town halls in Palm Beach and West Palm Beach. Before the debate he attends a party in Deerfield Beach. Romney has a rally planned for Miami, while Huckabee doesn't have anything other than the gathering on his plate.