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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« McCain Wins Florida | Blog Home Page | Edwards Out »

Morning Thoughts: Spin Me Right Round

Good Wednesday morning. For the sake of many in the press corps, who have seen their hard-living ways catch up to them, it's a wonderful thing that the primaries are over early in the evening this year. Then, those of us on the brink of catching our deaths can actually get some sleep. Before we pass on to the great political pages in the sky, here's what Washington is watching:

-- The House is not in session today, though yesterday it passed the economic stimulus package by an approximately 10-1 margin. The measure now moves to the Senate, which feels somewhat snubbed for being left out of the negotiations between the House and the White House, and has its own plan to offer. That could throw a monkey wrench in hopes by President Bush and Speaker Pelosi to just get the darned thing passed. The House, seemingly resting up for battle with the upper chamber, is out of session today.

-- Last night's Florida win for John McCain perpetuated the front-runner storyline in a dramatic way. The media consensus, at the moment, is that McCain is the nominee in waiting. "Only McCain left standing," writes CQ's Craig Crawford. "For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard To Stop," heads the Post's Dan Balz. The win, Adam Nagourney wrote, "raises the hurdles for [Mitt] Romney." While many suggested yesterday that Florida was a must-win for him, this morning many are discussing just how crucial Florida was for Romney, instead. The Florida primary was going to be a game-changer in favor of either McCain or Romney, and it certainly succeeded.

-- But the media may be racing toward a conclusion too quickly. To be certain, there have to be dozens of conservative radio hosts around the country who loathe John McCain and everything they think he stands for. Those hosts reach millions of people -- heck, more people listen to Rush Limbaugh on a daily basis than watch Fox News, CNN and MSNBC combined. As the Washington Times' Don Lambro points out, as McCain gets closer to the nomination, those hosts won't quiet down; they're just getting louder.

-- In fact, one might argue that Romney has an easier path to the nomination now than he did before losing Florida. With Rudy Giuliani out of the race, Romney's the only executive. With Mike Huckabee all but dead in the water and flat broke, Romney is the lone anti-McCain figure in the race. That's his new pitch, NBC/NJ's Erin McPike writes: It's a conservative versus John McCain. If he can convince voters that's actually the matchup they get, Romney -- if Republicans on Capitol Hill are to be believed -- would have to try to lose. Fortunately for McCain, though, Republicans on the Hill have shown a propensity to incorrectly gauge their base from time to time, and a win last night in a closed GOP primary showed the base might be just fine with the maverick.

-- Instead, it was Romney who headlines portray this morning as on the way to his own funeral. The AP's headline defines just how the media is looking at his second-place showing: "Romney vows to carry on campaign." That's not the message a successful candidate projects, that's the message of someone about to drop out. And, to be fair, that's probably not Romney. He came close last night, chased a lead opponent from the race and now has the matchup that probably suits him best. Still, with no events other than the Simi Valley debate on his docket today -- one has to imagine a sit-down with Mrs. Romney and all the little Romneys to discuss financial matters -- he's not acting like it's full speed ahead. When are those Super Tuesday ads going up?

-- On the Democratic side, HILLARY CLINTON WON A HUGE VICTORY LAST NIGHT! That's our lede, A01, right in front. Well, not really. Every now and then, the press reports on the efforts of one group to convince us what to report and what to value. How very meta. Clinton's campaign tried that yesterday, hoping to convince reporters that Florida was just as important -- if not more so -- than South Carolina, where Barack Obama came away with a big win. Clinton landed in Davie, Florida after polls closed last night for what her camp billed as a victory rally, and we're certain she'll win a few headlines, mostly in Florida. But it really didn't help her cause when MSNBC, among others, read disclaimers about Florida offering no delegates any time they talked about the Democratic side.

-- On the other hand, Florida Democrats offered two points about their party's nomination contest: First, in a vacuum, Hillary Clinton is still the front-runner. It wasn't a complete vacuum -- we suppose Obama's campaign had a few ads on cable news networks -- but it was nothing like the saturation level that happened in the first four early states. Aided by a lack of attention, Clinton won: She is therefore the default candidate, the one Democrats pick when they don't know much about the other guys. On February 5, Clinton can win every place no one watches, forcing Obama and John Edwards to find every delegate and play everywhere.

-- Second, and on the flip side of the above, Clinton won by just 17 points, about half of what she led by a year ago when a Quinnipiac poll showed her up by 36 (see all the Florida polls here). Nationally, Clinton holds a 9.7-point edge over Obama, according to the latest RCP Democratic Average. That's way down from the near-30 point lead she held through October. Obama has closed the gap enough to eliminate much of Clinton's default status. The default candidate, by the way, has a hard time winning votes back once they're lost. If Obama succeeds in overtaking Clinton, she will have a terribly difficult time coming back. Given polls in strange states like Colorado, where Obama's up by 2, he may be on the verge of doing just that.

-- Unthinkable Scenario Of The Day: We're not picking on Zogby, they just offer the best example of the lesson that politics is unpredictable. Their telephone survey of 364 likely Republicans, conducted 7/12-14 last year, showed Fred Thompson with 22% and Rudy Giuliani with 21%, followed by Romney's 11%, McCain at 9% and Huckabee at just 5%. Thompson and Giuliani, who led the national polls all year, are gone. Laggards Romney, McCain and Huckabee are still standing. Remember this in four years: Do not pay attention to national polls in presidential primaries.

-- Today On The Trail: Before Republicans head to the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California to debate, Huckabee has a fundraiser in Newport Beach, meets with religious leaders in Westlake Village and holds a fundraiser in Thousand Oaks. McCain has media stops in Miami and Burbank before the debate, while Romney goes straight to the debate. Clinton hits North Little Rock for a town hall, then heads to Atlanta to address the National Baptist Convention and the Georgia Dems' Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Edwards delivers a major speech on poverty in New Orleans before heading to the Georgia Democratic event as well. Obama has rallies planned in Denver and Phoenix as his February 5 sprint is already in full swing.