Morning Thoughts: Segment Politics
Good Monday morning. If you thought Iowa and New Hampshire were exciting, wait until the fur really begins to fly this week. Michiganders vote Tuesday, while South Carolinians and Nevadans head to the polls on Saturday. We're all just trying to keep up. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- Congress returns to Washington tomorrow with a plan to override President Bush's veto of a bill to authorize defense spending. The President nixed the measure over a little-noticed provision that allowed American lawsuits against Iraq under Saddam Hussein to go forward, which might end up costing the fledgling government there millions of dollars. But the authorization also contains new funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, funding with no strings attached. The irony of anti-war Democrats voting to override a pro-war President's veto of a measure that provides funds for more war is pure Washington.
-- As Congress returns, both parties are gearing up to make 2008 a year of change. More precisely, they are preparing to convince voters that theirs is the party of change, and that the other side is for the status quo of a broken Washington. More detail today on RCP. Suffice it to say, while presidential contenders on both sides talk of nothing other than change (skimpy on explanation of what kind or how it might be accomplished), members of Congress are going to prepare their own change talking points for use through November.
-- Out on the Presidential trail, this week features three Republican contests and two Democratic ones, though only Nevada will be meaningful for the Dems. This week is a week of constituencies, both racially and ideologically: In the Silver State, Democrats face a huge Hispanic portion of the electorate. Democrats will have to answer repeated questions about Western issues, like water, grazing rights and the ubiquitous Yucca Mountain, while appealing to labor unions, which play a large role in the state's political class, made all the more important by the caucus system.
-- Republicans will face an electorate in Michigan that features some voters from the state's large Arab-American and African-American communities, while ideologically they face a state widely acknowledged to be in its own localized recession. The three candidates fighting for delegates there -- John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee -- have spent a significant amount of time talking about the economy, the auto industry, job recovery and growth. With the economy becoming a more important issue lately, three leading Republicans are beginning to test and vet their plans. If the Michigan primary is any measure, watch Democrats do the same thing in coming weeks.
-- The conventional wisdom says Mitt Romneyhas to win Michigan, and with recent polls showing him ahead the campaign has taken on air of confidence: Communications Director Matt Rhoades confirms to Jonathan Martin that the campaign will head to South Carolina on Wednesday. The former Massachusetts governor benefits from being the first candidate to claim a home-state advantage. He grew up in Michigan, and has no trouble reminding voters there of that fact, the New York Times writes. No matter what, though, he can't stop talking about that Rambler his sons gave him for his birthday. We wonder if Team Romney finds any downside to talking about wealthy sons pooling their money to buy Dad a car in a state clearly enmeshed in a recession.
-- On Saturday, while Nevadans head to caucus sites, South Carolina will hold the first of two presidential nominating contests, this one for Republicans. The latest RCP South Carolina Average shows Huckabee ahead thanks to leads in two pre-New Hampshire polls, while McCain trails close behind thanks to two post-New Hampshire polls showing him on top. Mitt Romney is a not-so-distant third, while Fred Thompson languishes in fourth place. Thompson is putting his entire candidacy on the line in South Carolina, and his barnstorming bus tour is getting some good press. Whether that translates into votes is less clear; so far, it looks like it isn't working.
-- One name not mentioned in discussions of either Michigan or South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani, who is still holding his breath (and not paying his staff, a "generous gesture" that "isn't necessary," per NBC/NJ's Matt Berger) in advance of Florida's January 29th primaries. In the Sunshine State, Giuliani appeared to find religion, quoting the Book of Joshua before an evangelical audience on Sunday, ABC News wrote. Perhaps a bit of symbolism for intrepid reporters to find: The following passage, chapter 10 verse 26, has Joshua killing five kings. Count Ron Paul among GOP front-runners and someone on Rudy's staff is pretty clever. But how's that February 5 strategy working out? Giuliani has long stressed that he will do well in Florida, and he's dumping most of the rest of the money he's got into the state in hopes of a boost in advance of the national primary. Perhaps he should have managed expectations better: He's leading in just one of the polls that make up the latest RCP Florida Average, which has McCain up by 1.5 points.
-- Touchy Subjects Of The Day: What else, race and gender. It was a pleasant Sunday until Clinton and Obama took after each other over accusations of downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s accomplishments and other race and gender-oriented issues. Truth be told, race and gender can benefit both campaigns, most obviously by destroying the other. Obama's camp has done more to point out Clinton's statements on race, as HuffPo's Sam Stein reports, which brings to mind a hypothesis: When talking about race, Clinton will only get in trouble. If he starts talking about gender, Obama will do the same.
-- Today On The Trail: Edwards is in Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, while Clinton has an MLK Day event to attend in New York. Obama's in Nevada for a rally in Reno and town halls in Fallon and Carson City.
-- For Republicans, Huckabee heads to August, Lansing and Yipsilanti, Michigan, before hitting an auto show in Warren. McCain hosts last-minute town hall meetings in Kalamazoo, Holland, Spring Lake and Grand Rapids before hitting a fundraiser in Traverse City. Romney spends his time in Grand Blanc before speaking to the Detroit Economic Club and to an Oakland County GOP fundraiser in West Bloomfield. Thompson will meet voters in Aiken, Greenwood and SImpsonville, South Carolina, and Giuliani has town halls planned for Naples, Fort Myers, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Clearwater and Lakeland, Florida. Ron Paul has a media availability in Reno and a rally in Carson City.



