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Morning Thoughts: Pulling Punches

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Good Friday morning. Dennis Kucinich has shocked the political world by dropping his presidential bid. The biggest fallout: No more profiles of wife Elizabeth. Kucinich now gets to go back to Cleveland and fight for re-election, which may be a bigger problem than he would like. Here are other hot topics Washington is watching:

-- House Republicans are retreating to White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, where they will hear from President Bush at a luncheon today. The Senate, meanwhile, is in session but has no roll call votes scheduled. Lefty bloggers are up in arms today as a White House-backed bill to give the NSA more spying ability won a test vote yesterday in the Senate. Look for some in the blogosphere to suggest drastic action against Democrats who supported the president's bill.

-- Republicans who met in Boca Raton last night tip-toed around each other, which means things probably won't change, RCP's Tom Bevan writes. That let John McCain and Mitt Romney continue to look like front-runners, and it probably doomed Rudy Giuliani to yet another third-place finish. The question Giuliani's team should begin to consider: Does a third-place finish necessitate a quick withdrawal, or can he credibly stay in until after Super Tuesday? By the way, the biggest battle of the night: "Now that Sylvestor Stallone has endorsed me, I'm sending him over to take care of Chuck Norris right away," McCain said.

-- There will be few accusations that Republicans and Democrats are at all alike come November, as last night's debate showed. Only Ron Paul said Iraq was a bad idea, while the others on stage said it was a good idea, as the New York Times writes in their debate roundup. That is decidedly anathema to any Democrat's position, and regardless of whether the issue is backsliding in importance in voters' minds, it's going to be a major point of distinction in the general election.

-- By the way, Romney winning Florida is suddenly a real possibility. The latest RCP Florida Average shows the two tied after recent polls have showed Romney with a notable upward trajectory. He still has a chance to either blow that lead or solidify it: Voters don't head to the polls until Tuesday. It is rare, in recent history, for a candidate to put all his chips on one state, telegraph his withdrawal if he loses that state, win, and return to the head of the pack to contend for a nomination. This year, it has happened twice, with Romney in Michigan and McCain in New Hampshire. Whichever one loses the nomination will have only himself to blame for not squelching the other guy when he had the chance.

-- Consider, for the moment, that Democrats actually turnout and vote in Florida on Tuesday, despite the fact that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have used the state as little more than an ATM machine. In what might be seen as an indication of the level of excitement Democratic voters have leading up to this year's election, they actually are turning out: More Democrats have taken advantage of early voting than Republicans, Marc Ambinder reports.

-- Recent polls have shown Clinton way ahead -- she leads by 22 in the latest RCP Florida Average -- and no one has bothered to set expectations there. Could we see a Florida bounce heading in to Super Tuesday? If so, that's great for Clinton, coming out of what looks like a South Carolina loss. If no one pays attention, though, Obama could head to Super Tuesday with a big lead.

-- Bill Clinton has been diligently working African American voters in South Carolina, doing everything he can to cut into Obama's lead with the key segment of the South Carolina Democratic base. But Obama's camp is countering by working to cut into Clinton's healthy lead among women, the LA Times reports. And while the battle is pronounced in South Carolina, it's playing a role in February 5 states already. In California, Obama has sent staffers looking for older women, and during recent stops in the state he's emphasized the struggle his own mother went through after his father left. Women make up a disproportionate slice of the Democratic electorate, and if Obama's going to catch up to Clinton -- he's running behind among women virtually everywhere, so far -- he'll need to shrink the gender gap.

-- Disturbing Trend Of The Day: Jim Walsh yesterday became the 24th Republican to announce he would not seek a new term in the House, either because of retirement or because of the prospects of another job. Lefty blog Swing State Project takes a look at those who have backed out of another run, as well as those who might still be ready to call it quits (Our favorite: California Republican Elton Gallegly. Swing State's note: "Botched a retirement attempt in 2006"). The bad news for Republicans: 24 retirements this year is a lot more than the 13 who were out by this time two years ago.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton holds a town hall in Columbia and a rally in Rock Hill. Obama has roundtables in Charleston and Columbia before rallying in Clemson, Florence and Columbia. Edwards campaigns in Greenville, holds a town hall in Columbia and meets voters in Orangeburg and Charleston. On the GOP side, McCain meets the media in Miami, holds a roundtable in Tampa, talks to Fort Lauderdale media and addresses a lunch in Miami. Giuliani rallies in Miami and addresses a local GOP group in Sarasota, while Huckabee makes two stops in Fort Lauderdale before heading to Miami for interviews and a speech at a lunch. Romney addresses the same Miami lunch before stopping in Pensacola and meeting the media in Clearwater.

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