Morning Thoughts: MittMentum
Good Wednesday morning. Was there a better night for politics than last night? There hasn't been for a very long time. Here's what an overwhelmed Washington is watching today:
-- The House meets to discuss a resolution on the death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and to consider a bill that deals with miner safety. The House Intelligence Committee holds a closed hearing on the destroyed CIA interrogation tapes, while the House Foreign Affairs Committee is dealing with U.S.-Pakistani relations.
-- For the third time in two weeks, a Republican presidential contender took the stage to declare victory in an early state nominating contest. For the third time in two weeks, it was a different candidate. The GOP race teetered on the brink of losing Mitt Romney, but with his win in Michigan last night, the former governor is right back in the thick of what remains a five-person race. Romney's economic message got through -- exit polls showed him leading John McCain among those who said the economy was their biggest concern -- raising the possibility that businessman Romney has, to borrow a phrase, found his voice. Will Romney take the same message with him to South Carolina, or will he revert back to trying to out-conservative everyone else?
-- For McCain, the loss isn't devastating, but it sure looks like a missed opportunity. A win in Michigan likely would have sent McCain to victory in South Carolina and Nevada this weekend, and other states beyond. Instead, he's going to have to fight tooth and nail for the Palmetto State. Recent polls have him leading Mike Huckabee there, but with Romney back on air and coming off a win, expect McCain's lead to shrink. South Carolina Republicans have to be thrilled at the prospect of once again controlling the GOP nomination. Then again, if recent history holds, we'll probably just have a fourth winner.
-- The after-effects of Romney's win will likely only sow more distaste for each other within the GOP field. McCain joined supporters at a party in Charleston about a quarter after 9 p.m. last night to offer his concession, in a backhanded manner, to Romney: "He and his campaign worked hard and effectively to make sure that Michigan voters welcomed their native son with their support," McCain said, per JMart. Of course, few heard that, because just moments into McCain's speech, an ebullient Romney bounded into his own victory party, and the cameras cut to him. The beginning of a dangerous trend? NRO's Geraghty says the campaigns spoke to arrange the timing, but then Romney intentionally stepped on McCain's airtime.
-- On the Democratic side, an interesting and potentially game-changing statistic came from the Wolverine State last night: As Hillary Clinton won the state, where she was running against Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and Uncommitted, about 68% of African American voters chose to cast their ballots for Uncommitted. The Not Clinton choice won among 18-29 year olds, among those with post-graduate degrees, among independents and among those who make more than $100,000 a year (read: Obama voters). In all, Clinton only won the state with 55% of the vote, not the overwhelming victory it should have been. Is Clinton in more trouble than anyone thinks among African American voters, thanks to recent comments she and her surrogates have made? Could South Carolina and Nevada just be the finishing blows of what Iowa started, an Obama landslide?
-- Many wonder whether Obama could have won the state. Exits show him running 11 points behind Clinton with no effort to turn anyone out, meaning that the 35% of the vote he would have gotten was a baseline, and that any rudimentary turnout operation would have boosted that number. If Obama could have actually won there, he might have ended the race. So why wasn't he on the ballot? Don't forget, it was his own fault. Obama's was the first campaign to declare it wanted off the Michigan ballot and to demand that other candidates follow suit. Every other candidate, not wanting to anger Iowa and New Hampshire voters and hoping to save a little campaign cash by sitting out such a big state, followed suit. Except Clinton. If anyone today tells you that Obama could have won there, remind them it's his own fault he didn't.
-- Obama last night was too busy having a conversation with Clinton and John Edwards on a stage in Las Vegas, where the discussion in large part was civil and restrained. Both Clinton and Obama distanced themselves from any talk of race, the Washington Post wrote: Clinton assured Democratic voters that at the end of the day they are "all family," while Obama said he knew Clinton and Edwards were committed to racial equality. We say he was too busy because he easily out-paced the other candidates with his answers, talking for 34 minutes to Clinton's 27 and Edwards' 22, according to First Read's count. The moderators, like voters, appear to be leaving Edwards out more. He got just a quarter of the 70 questions asked, while Obama and Clinton together took the rest.
-- Clinton's knowledge of everyone's record on Yucca Mountain issues is likely to show up in a mailing very shortly, NBC's Chuck Todd guesses. Clinton, he says, came to the debate armed with a local angle, Obama went with the national angle and Edwards just tried to get noticed. We thought Edwards might be better served with the Nevada angle, but her performance sure looked like Clinton is the one who will wage the most intense fight with Obama for the state's votes. All this just a week after she considered ceding the state, along with South Carolina, had she lost New Hampshire.
-- Sort-Of Endorsement Of The Day: Conservative super-funder Richard Viguerie says he remains uncommitted to any of the GOP candidates, the Washington Post reports, but, he writes, "it is clear that Ron Paul is truly a principled conservative in the grand tradition of Robert Taft, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan." Other candidates, Viguerie said, owe their allegiance to "Big Government Republicanism." Paul had a good day yesterday: Along with Viguerie's kind-of-not-really backing, the LA Times notes he also finished ahead of Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. For the third contest in a row.
-- Today On The Trail: Nevada, like New Hampshire, is a small state. Unlike New Hampshire, large parts of the electorate are spread over a huge expanse of nothingness. Today, the Democrats are all over that nothingness. Clinton discusses Yucca Mountain in Las Vegas, then holds an economic roundtable in Reno. Obama has a town meeting planned for Henderson before sneaking off for an economic roundtable of his own in Van Nuys, California. Edwards has a town hall in Reno before meeting voters in Henderson and holding another town hall in Las Vegas.
-- GOP attention now shifts to South Carolina, where Huckabee visits the South Carolina Renewal Project in Columbia before making stops in Tigerville and Charleston. McCain rallies in Greenville before holding town halls in Spartanburg and Lake Wylie. The resurgent Romney meets voters in Bluffton, Charleston, Florence and Columbia, while Fred Thompson has a radio town hall in Laurens and meets voters in Clinton, Abbeville and Orangeburg. Rudy Giuliani is, where else, in Florida. He rallies in Panama City before holding a presser in Pensacola.


