MCCARRAN AIRPORT, LAS VEGAS -- Good Monday morning, and happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It may be a holiday for federal workers, but for campaign employees, it is not. Here's what party and campaign operatives are considering with their day off; as we'll call it, a special Norm Rice edition of Morning Thoughts:

-- Hope. Twenty-one years after his birthday was declared a holiday, King's legacy lives on in more than just after-Christmas sales. In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, King's hopes of achieving equality for everyone is undergoing a serious test. On one side, some believe that Barack Obama's candidacy is a test of racial equality; on the other, some think true equality would mean he endures the same scrutiny as any other candidate.

-- If African American voters turn out in record numbers for the first black candidate to be able to claim the front-runner mantle, Obama could win, especially in South Carolina. If, on the other hand, the race becomes a standard Democratic contest, Hillary Clinton is likely to remain in command. Clinton once had a legitimate claim to a significant slice of the African American vote; she led among the key demographic for most of 2007. Thanks to recent controversies, though, African Americans favored Obama by overwhelming margins in Nevada, and he enjoys similar margins in South Carolina. Both spent Sunday in major, historic black churches -- Obama at Ebenezer Baptist in Atlanta, Clinton at Abyssinian Baptist in Harlem -- in what may be a sign of where the Democratic battle goes from here.

-- Change. Obama was right. Everyone really is jumping on this whole "change" bandwagon. Something Democrats are going to consider: Which candidate gives them the best chance of winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a bigger margin in the House? Clinton has long emphasized that she is the most electable. Is that really the case, given the non-stop anecdotes of Republicans and independents flooding caucuses and primaries to cast an Obama vote? Answer that question and you'll know who the Democratic nominee will be.

-- Two things Republicans are going to consider: Which candidate delivers the "change" message most effectively -- a longtime Senator whose reputation is as a maverick independent, a businessman governor or an evangelical preacher who embodies the term "compassionate conservative" in a way George Bush only dreamed of? And which candidate is best to use that message of change against, a neophyte with a funny name or a veteran with a name like Clinton? Answer the first and you'll find a Republican front-runner. We think we know the answer to the second one, but given Republican willingness to talk about their differences with Obama at a debate in New Hampshire, it's obvious they're considering their answer to his candidacy as well.

-- Opportunity. On Saturday, Fred Thompson and John Edwards came in third in two separate contests in which each should have done better. Thompson, despite a nearly two-week long bus tour, couldn't come close to John McCain or Mike Huckabee in South Carolina. Edwards, in spite of strongbacking from influential unions around the country and in Nevada, managed a pathetic 4% there, fewer than one-tenth the delegates Clinton and Obama scored. Both candidates had opportunities to get a win. Both failed. Now, the question of their exits from the race become not ones of if, but of when.

-- Thompson looks most likely to become the first major casualty of the GOP contest. He has no public schedule remaining, and his post-South Carolina speech read more like a concession than a call to action. Edwards has said he will stay in the race until the convention, but what kind of power broker can he be if he only has a few dozen delegates? His being a game-changer would depend on an extremely even contest, which is far from likely, and his delegates doing what he says, which they don't have to. On the other hand, Thompson and Edwards can probably cast their lots with a front-running candidate and seal a win for that person (McCain and Obama, probably, given Thompson and Edwards' personal feelings), then hope their candidate wins the White House and gives them a good job in Washington (Is Ambassador to Hollywood a Senate-confirmable post?).

-- Speaking of opportunity, Obama has a big one coming up in South Carolina next Saturday. But for Republicans, who has the edge going in to Florida? The latest RCP Florida Average shows John McCain with a three-point lead, but that's without any polls conducted after his South Carolina win. Throw in a potential endorsement from Mel Martinez and possible backing from Thompson and McCain looks like it's his time to shine.

-- We're headed back to Washington as you read this column. Normal updates will resume mid-day Monday.