Good Friday morning. It's a cold, ugly, gray day here in Washington. Here's what politicos everywhere are watching:

-- Last night's Republican debate on Fox News, and the way some GOP candidates are behaving, suggest that perhaps the media is getting it wrong. Many have set up the battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney in Michigan, and between Mike Huckabee and McCain in South Carolina. In both states, though, that's not the whole story: Recent polls show Romney in second place (again) and either McCain or Huckabee leading in Michigan. Thanks to December polls, Romney still leads the latest RCP Michigan Average. How is Huckabee doing so well in a state so far from the South? Michigan does have a lot of Second Amendment fans, and more than its share of evangelical voters. The Wolverine State, in short, is a three-way race.

-- In South Carolina, Romney is going to have to come in with some momentum to make it a three-way contest. After peaking near 22% in the RCP South Carolina Average, he's now down to 16.5% while Huckabee and McCain have surged. Things are looking increasingly bleak for Romney, who has pulled his Palmetto State advertising to focus on Michigan: Even with a big win there, he would have just four days to capitalize on any momentum going into South Carolina. Does it say something, too, that he's pulling ads out of South Carolina and Florida to make a final stand in Michigan? He's got a big checkbook, why not use it? Money should never be a problem if he believes he can win. Maybe, like a bad business deal, Romney is prepared to cut his losses.

-- While Romney is in trouble, Huckabee is not exactly on a glide path toward the nomination either. As Fred Thompson collapses in the polls -- from a high of around 23% to a current disappointing 9% -- he's had to make South Carolina what amounts to his last stand. And given his recent debate performances, featuring strong, almost prosecutorial jabs at Romney and Huckabee, the Thompson candidacy looks like it has concluded that it must take votes away from others instead of earning them on their own.

-- Who gets off unscathed? For all the talk of the Republican base despising McCain, we imagined he would be getting more flack from his fellow candidates. Indeed, Rudy Giuliani tried to take a shot last night, but it was a half-hearted attempt. Fred Thompson did a better job on immigration. Are the other campaigns waiting for someone else to pull a Karl Rove and make McCain implode? Are they hoping his temper goes haywire and he punches an autograph-seeker? He's rising in national polls; he's rising in state polls; he's raising new and good money. If someone doesn't go after John McCain, and there are certainly ways to capitalize on the vitriol felt by some in the GOP base over McCain, he's going to win by default.

-- In recent weeks, some have written that, in 2008, Iraq will not be the major issue many forecasted. Instead, the economy, immigration, jobs and other issues closer to home will top voters' minds when they cast a ballot. The LA Times' Don Frederick asks: Is that the reason Rudy Giuliani's fortunes have sunk so dramatically in the past few months? From highs of 38% in the RCP National Average in March, Giuliani has fallen to third place, just under 17%, calling into question his February 5 strategy. Could it be that as national security has become a less important issue, Giuliani's standing has fallen? If so, Barack Obama might have to rethink some of his strategy on the Democratic side as well. One way to answer the question: Are there any Republican voters who care most about the war in Iraq who are not voting for McCain or Ron Paul? The distinctions between the candidates on homeland security are few and far between (who's not for homeland security?) but the Iraq question is dominated by McCain.

-- On the Democratic side, Bill Clinton spent many days in New Hampshire stumping for his wife, though toward the end of the primary he was relegated to counties out west where fewer people -- and perhaps more tellingly, fewer members of the media -- would show up. Still, he said Obama's campaign was based on a fairy tale, and after some bizarre words from Hillary Clinton about Martin Luther King, Jr. and the 1964 Civil RIghts Act, some civil rights activists began to seem a little irritated. Chief among them: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, who represents South Carolina, according to the New York Times. Many have said that a conversation on race is needed. But when any conversation over race begins, the candidate who started it always gets hurt. Clyburn, who could seal South Carolina for Obama, is now considering an endorsement after saying last year that he would sit out.

-- Clinton's win in New Hampshire came, she said, as she found her voice there. Swinging through Nevada yesterday, she kept that voice talking, joining State Assemblyman and soon to be kingmaker Ruben Kihuen for a walk through a Las Vegas neighborhood. Politics Nation hears another reason for her New Hampshire win: 500,000 volunteer phone calls poured into the Granite State from around the country, using a program called Activate, offered by a company in Leesburg, Virginia. The program, which lets campaign volunteers dial in at any time from anywhere in the country, was little-used in Iowa, though it found some success in New Hampshire. One source tells us Activate will be deployed heavily in Nevada as well, and if Clinton can hold on for a win there, it may not be her voice that mattered most, but the voices of thousands of campaign volunteers who can have an impact on the race from their kitchen tables.

-- Conspiracy Theory Of The Day: Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire came courtesy of Diebold, some liberal bloggers are saying. In fact, Clinton did win by 4.2 points in townships that use optical scanners, while losing by 5.8 points in places that utilize paper ballots. Conspiracy? Probably not, write Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta, polling experts for the Post. Optical scan counties gave John Kerry a 14.7-point margin in 2004, while Gore carried the counties by 5.3 points in 2000. Opponents Howard Dean and Bill Bradley beat Kerry and Gore by 1.7 points and 3.3 points in paper ballot counties those years.

-- Today On The Trail: Rudy Giuliani is back in Florida for a town hall in Coral Springs. Mike Huckabee heads to Michigan for a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, followed by a rally in Birch Run, while Mitt Romney campaigns in Warren, Lansing and Hudsonville. John McCain sticks around South Carolina for meet and greets with voters in Pawley's Island, Mount Pleasant and Summerville.

-- On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton gives a speech on the economy in Los Angeles, while John Edwards has town halls scheduled for Summerville and St. Helena Island, South Carolina. Barack Obama heads to Las Vegas to accept the endorsement of the influential Culinary Workers Union and to hold a town hall meeting.