NASHUA, New Hampshire -- Janitors in a dozen locations around the state are still sweeping up confetti this morning as candidates abandon the Granite State and journalists prepare to follow close behind. With eleven days until Republicans go to the polls in South Carolina and voters of both parties in Nevada head to their respective caucuses, here's what Washington is watching this morning, struggling once again to get a grip on a confusing and exciting race:

-- So, did something happen last night? Seems like there was a lot of commotion all around our hotel. That's probably because Politics Nation is camped out next to the Crowne Plaza in Nashua, where eight years ago John McCain celebrated a huge win over then-Texas Governor Bush. Last night, at the same hotel, he celebrated again, with a 37%-32% win over Mitt Romney.

-- Hillary Clinton, who late yesterday faced buzz about a possible major campaign staff shake-up and whispers of impending calls for her withdrawal from the race from Washington insiders, scored a stunning come-from-behind win that had pollsters scrambling to explain why their models were wrong. Two reasons for her upset: women, who flocked to Clinton in droves, and independents, many of whom picked McCain on a Republican ballot instead of Obama on the Democratic side.

-- How did Clinton do it? Female turnout -- 57% of the Democratic electorate -- broke strongly for her, while a slumping John Edwards underperformed among his traditional Democratic blue collar base, a population among which he tied Clinton in Iowa. Clinton carried voters who were worried about the economy, unlike in Iowa, and more importantly, she won among registered Democrats, which she failed to do by a convincing margin in Iowa, Amy Walter writes.

-- The pollsters, at the end of the day, just got something wrong. Don't, however, let anyone tell you that they got Obama's numbers wrong: He finished with about 36%, which was well within the range of most pre election polls. But the polls did badly underestimated Clinton's support, with most pegging it between 28-34% while she finished well above that with 39%.

Of course, some pollsters were less wrong than others: We got a note this morning from Research 2000, which, in a 1/4-5 poll, showed Obama at 34% to Clinton's 33%, with a 5% margin of error. Technically, that's the most accurate poll of the last few weeks, and on the GOP side, the firm got it spot on, predicting a 6-point, 35%-29% McCain victory. In fact, he won 37%-32%. So, next time Del Ali and company come out with a poll, pay attention.

-- We took heat last week for suggesting that Obama's Iowa win was overblown because he won just 16 delegates to Clinton's 15 and Edwards' 14. But we stand by the sentiment: In the lead-up to a convention, it is the race for delegates that really matters, but it's the incessant horse racing of each little state that makes the media go wild. Last night, Obama actually kept his one-delegate lead in allocated delegates (that is, not the super-delegates, who may switch their votes at will). He earned nine in a two-point loss to Clinton, the same number she did, while Edwards scored four. Why do we keep paying attention to this? Because a contested convention remains possible, and it's a great metric to follow. Not to diminish anyone's wins, but keep in mind the fascinating "what if" of a battle in Denver over a few delegates.

-- Candidates flying out today face some harsh realities, none more so than Mitt Romney. Romney poured millions into ads and infrastructure in Iowa and New Hampshire only to finish second in both states (though he won Wyoming) and now he faces an uncertain future in the Michigan primary a week and a half out. Romney has a few advantages there: His dad was governor, he's spent time there, he event won the Mackinac Island straw poll put on by the Michigan GOP. But his hurdles could be too high to overcome. Mike Huckabee is becoming more popular among social conservatives, and with Obama having pulled off the ballot, independents are free to pick McCain on the Republican side. The Wolverine State is Romney's last stand, Marc Ambinder writes, though his strategists hold out some hope.

-- Romney can also take solace from McCain's path to the nomination, which is about as clear as mud. So is Huckabee's, Thompson's and Giuliani's, but McCain seems the most plausible nominee at the moment. Where does the race stand heading into Michigan? In just about the same place we thought it stood going into New Hampshire: A big McCain win there would likely knock Romney from the race, while a Romney upset would send McCain into another tailspin. These two don't like each other much, and the next week doesn't promise to do much to mend their friendship as they go head-to-head in Michigan.

-- Obama's strong Iowa win will still have an impact, as he is likely to pick up a nod from the Culinary Workers' union in Nevada at a 9:30 a.m. local time meeting of the union's top board members. Obama would be in the state to accept the nod on Friday, Ambinder notes, making it the most important union to back Obama thus far. Last night, he picked up the SEIU's Nevada chapter as well, the LA Times reports, which represents about 17,000 members in the Silver State. Insiders suggested the choice came down to a contest between Obama and John Edwards, with Clinton nowhere in the picture.

-- He's had an awkward relationship with labor, Ben Smith wrote last week: Campaign manager David Plouffe had to make the case against special interests attacking Obama and backing Clinton in Iowa, most of whom were labor groups. Both she and John Edwards have strong labor support, but none of those unions have power over one state like the culinary workers do over Nevada. Obama could have waited until just the right time to win back labor.

-- For the two top GOP candidates who have not finished first or second in the initial primaries, the fact that New Hampshire is finally over has to be a weight off their shoulders. Rudy Giuliani headed straight for Florida today, while Fred Thompson did not even wait for the votes to come in before jetting off to South Carolina, which he did last night. Giuliani's strategy is dangerous (he left for Florida before the votes were even counted last night, AP reports), while Thompson's could be fatal, Dan Hoover writes. "I'm staking an awful lot on South Carolina," the former Senator told the Greenville News. Thompson gets to take his shot at vaulting back into contention first, on the 19th, while Rudy has to wait another ten days after that. Both are going to have to run as hard as they can to beat back the McMentum and HuckMentum, as well as Romney's financial prowess.

-- New Guys Of The Day: As the Culinary Workers' nod suggests, Obama still has momentum, and Clinton is by no means out of the woods yet. The major staff shakeup seems less likely to happen, but some new faces are on their way in. The Fix reports that both former Clinton White House political director Doug Sosnik and former Hillary Clinton Chief of Staff Maggie Williams will join the campaign, Sosnick in an informal role and Williams as a top campaign coordinator, a role that may force campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle out the door. Clinton may get the best of both worlds: New blood in the form of top advisers and a surprise win with which they have the chance to seize back the momentum.

-- Today On The Trail: Victorious Clinton heads to New York for interviews, while Obama holds a rally in Jersey City followed by fundraisers in the Big Apple. Edwards will hold rallies in Clemson and Columbia, South Carolina and once again assert that he's the native son.

-- On the Republican side, we just saw McCain's private jet take off from the Nashua airport (we think) as he heads to rallies in Grand Rapids and Waterford, Michigan, followed by a rally in Charleston, South Carolina tonight. Huckabee is headed down south too, hitting Spartanburg, Greenville and Myrtle Beach. Romney is in Boston before heading out to Grand Rapids and East Grand Rapids for events with voters. Fred Thompson's bus tour heads through Sumter, Florence, Conway and Myrtle Beach, and Rudy Giuliani is still in Florida, with events in Melbourne and West Palm Beach.