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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« A Heated Battle For Hastert's Seat | Blog Home Page | Feuding Past Myrtle Beach »

Morning Thoughts: Dems Get Ugly

Good Tuesday morning We were watching the fights last night, and all the sudden a debate broke out. Fallout continues today, as Clinton will hold a media advisory here in Washington before jetting off to other events. Virtually everyone is talking about it today, though other topics could become much more important, and pretty quickly. Here's the rest of what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate is back in session today after a long holiday break. They take up the Indian Health Care Improvement Act after an hour of morning business. The House renames a few post offices, expresses its sense that the U.S. has the moral responsibility to do something about poverty (but doesn't actually do anything about it), amends a bill on highway tunnels and thanks the Coast Guard for seizing 350,000 pounds of cocaine at sea in 2007. The Senate Finance Committee, meanwhile, takes up economic stimulus (just in time; see below).

-- As for the Massacre in Myrtle Beach, one thing is certain: By later primaries, when John Edwards and John Kerry were the only two legitimately competing for the Democratic nomination four years ago, Edwards was respectful in his challenges, campaigning virtually openly for vice president. This year, that's not going to happen. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton simply don't like each other, and neither is going to choose -- or even ask -- the other to be their number two. In the loudest, angriest debate so far, Clinton landed some key punches: The "present" votes, a Tony Rezko mention and his consistency on the war in Iraq. Obama got his share in, too: The bankruptcy bill, Bill Clinton's attacks and all the Washington insider criticism you can handle.

-- At times, they were both shrill, though Clinton is the more practiced debater. She frequently interrupted Obama in mid-attack, and her response to criticism is not to play defense, but to fight back, as Chuck Todd observed. That's a great response, and it suggests that Clinton is the more disciplined politician. By the way, Rick Klein's live-blogging is a must-read for micro-analysis on every punch and counter-punch.

-- One big winner last night: John Edwards, who generally sat back and said nice things about people, got in some good jokes about being the white man at a disadvantage and seemed pleased to be above it all. That is, when he wasn't taking very effective shots at both Obama and Clinton. For months, Edwards has targeted Clinton as much as he can. Last night, he went after Obama as much, if not more. The Edwards campaign must believe that the only way they vault back into contention is if they take votes away from Obama in South Carolina. Still, against Obama and Clinton, both of whom had solid debates, Edwards has a steep hill to climb.

-- Last year, deputy campaign manager Mike Henry authored a memo suggesting Clinton skip Iowa, making the state less valuable for the eventual winner. Henry did not get his wish, and Clinton got thumped, nearly derailing her entire campaign. This week, Clinton again finds herself an underdog, going into a heavily African American state just days after more than 80% of that key demographic chose rival Obama in Nevada. This time, the campaign is trying something different. Bill and Chelsea Clinton will be in the state for part of next week, though the candidate herself will be in California, Arizona, New Mexico, New Jersey and New York, as the New York Observer reports. Clinton's absence doesn't have the effect of minimizing an Obama win, but it's certainly sending a message that Clinton isn't taking the state as seriously as she did New Hampshire.

-- Obama, too, is looking beyond South Carolina, anticipating a contentious February 5. His campaign became the first to launch national ad, a sixty-second bio spot featuring testimony from Harvard Professor Laurence Tribe, Illinois Republican State Senator Kirk Dillard and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill and snips from his DNC speech in 2004. The spot, running on CNN (including one before last night's debate) and MSNBC, according to AdAge, was immediately attacked by the Clinton camp as a violation of the early state pledge. Their rationale: There are 6.6 million households in Florida that get CNN, therefore Obama had violated a pledge not to campaign in a state that will hold its primary ahead of the DNC-approved window.

-- Clinton's team put former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Kathy Sullivan on the phone to blast Obama for the move. Still, now that January is more than three weeks old, who cares about Iowa and New Hampshire anymore? At least Obama's up on national television. Minor irony, aside from a Florida Congresswoman saying a presidential candidate from her party should not advertise in her state: "Just last week the Obama campaign snubbed the people of Florida in a memo that stated that Florida did not matter in the nominating process," said a statement from the Clinton campaign, as they argue that Obama should stay away.

-- One more Obama observation: Anecdotally, many have written about emails circulating false information about Obama's religion -- they claim he's a Muslim, or worse, some sort of Manchurian candidate -- though this reporter had never come across voters who had seen the emails. That is, until Nevada, when Obama and Clinton fans, and more than one cab driver, said they had received the emails. Obama's campaign must be feeling heat over it: Salon's Glenn Greenwald reports on some Obama mailers in South Carolina that call him a "committed Christian" who was "called to bring change" and "called to serve." Greenwald doesn't like the overtly religious tone, which he calls at least as explicit as anything Mike Huckabee has done. Still, it's the South, where religion is a political issue, and Obama's team must be seriously worried about the rumors if they're making it such a central part of a mailing to South Carolinians.

-- Republicans are a few hundred miles south this week, stumping across Florida after Saturday's contests in Nevada and South Carolina. After the results rolled in, we were struck by the almost concessionary tone of Mike Huckabee's speech to supporters. Now, Mitt Romney is trying to get ahead of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in Florida, and his strategy seems to seize on that point: He's ignoring Huckabee, Jonathan Martin writes.

-- Huckabee has little money to compete in Florida or in February 5 states, but he's not dead in the water: He's in fourth place, just seven points behind front-running McCain, in the latest RCP Florida Average, and second behind McCain in the latest RCP National Average. Lots of political obituaries, including Huckabee's, have been written this year. Few, so far, have proven accurate. That being said, the Huckabee campaign is no longer providing transportation to reporters, either by bus or by plane. The transport was important in the primaries, they said, but they're "scaling back," per NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann.

-- A major sign of Obama's rise to the top came in a Republican debate before the New Hampshire primary, when GOP candidates were asked to contrast themselves with the Illinois Senator as opposed to Clinton, a favorite target in previous debates. Last night's debate was another sign of the rise of a candidate from the other party: Many thought the Democratic winner would end up facing Romney or Giuliani; Obama was most overt, talking about his contrasts with "Rudy and Mitt." In Myrtle Beach, Giuliani's and Romney's names never came up. Instead, Democrats spent plenty of time criticizing McCain for his stand on the surge. Thirty minutes later: "I think that John McCain is going to be the Republican candidate," Edwards said. Mac is back, and as the Republican front-runner.

-- All-Consuming Storyline Of The Day: As the debate progressed, the beginnings of a bigger story played out in Tokyo, as the Nikkei index plummeted more than 5.6%. European markets aren't doing much better -- in fact, 43 markets have reached bear market territory, Bloomberg reports. We thought the economy was going to be a big issue before, but when the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops well blow 12,000 today, that's certain to get everyone's attention. More analysis on the stumbling market at RealClearMarkets.

-- Today On The Trail: McCain starts in Pensacola before heading to Fort Walton Beach, Florida; later, he holds a fundraiser in New York. Romney is in Boca Raton, Coral Springs and Naples, while Rudy Giuliani is in Palm Beach Gardens. On the 35th anniversary of Roe v. Wade, Huckabee heads to Atlanta for a Right to Life event. Obama hits stops in Greenville, Greenwood, Lexington and Orangeburg, while Edwards starts in Conway before appearing on the Late Show with David Letterman. Clinton has a media availability in Washington before holding town halls in Salinas, California and Laveen, Arizona.