Good Thursday morning. It's the last day of January, but given the weather in Washington yesterday, it feels like the first week of the month. Here's hoping Punxsutawney Phil declares winter over this Saturday. The rest of what Washington's watching:

-- After another tough week, the House is out of session again today (Were they even around? We honestly forgot. Oh, that's right, State of the Union and then the stimulus package). The Senate Finance Committee, meanwhile, advanced their own version of a stimulus bill to the floor, capping eligibility for rebate checks at $150,000 -- meaning single members of Congress won't be getting rebates -- and adding energy tax breaks and cuts for those building houses, CongressDaily reports (subs req'd). Today, the bill hits the floor, where it needs 60 votes to take the place of the House version, which Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to offer today.

-- Last night's debate brought a new-look GOP field. The media wanted to see the Mitt Romney-John McCain throw-down, and they got it. The two barked back and forth over McCain's recent criticism of Romney for advocating time tables to get out of Iraq, an assertion Romney rejects outright, for so long that even Mike Huckabee complained about being left out, Jonathan Martin writes. But, an important opportunity missed last night: A focus on the economy. Changing the course of the debate to favor a tanking economy is Romney's last chance to get back in front, but last night, heading into the biggest election of his life, he failed to do so.

-- Like him or not, McCain is the front-runner, and somebody has to take action if they're going to stop him. Maybe Romney isn't the person to do so; maybe it's Huckabee. After another stellar debate in which he came across as reasonable, humorous, responsible and tried to act the commander in chief, Huckabee goes into Super Tuesday with no money and not much of an official campaign organization. That's exactly how he went into Iowa, and thanks to an underground network of supporters, he won. It's not hard to imagine Huckabee taking several Southern states and performing surprisingly well in some others, while Romney can't manage one win next week. If that happens, McCain will still be in front, but he'll have to turn his attention to some serious Huckabusiness.

-- Regardless of Huckabee's success, though, we couldn't help but remember 2004, when Edwards survived to face John Kerry one-on-one. A late debate performance was meant more as an audition as the attack dog, in order to convince Kerry he could serve as Vice President. The four candidates on stage last night are all despised by various wings of their party. Huckabee is not well-liked by the Club for Growth, for instance, while Romney is unpopular with evangelicals. Ron Paul, it seems, is unpopular with everyone. McCain's had a history of sticking his finger in the GOP's eye; what better way to do so than by picking Huckabee as a running mate, just to irritate his party further?

-- Further evidence of Romney's dropping off as a strong contender: Five days before Super Tuesday and he still has not made a move to get his advertisements on the air, as this space has reported and as Jim Geraghty and the AP report today. Still, the point Geraghty makes is well-taken: Romney won big in Wyoming and Nevada, where he spent time organizing, and beat McCain by a narrower margin in Michigan. If Romney could spend his money on building big organizations, he'd be in good position. But that's not something he can do in five days.

-- To be fair, McCain and Huckabee aren't going up on television either, leaving only Democrats on the air, the New York Times writes. But that's not unusual for either: McCain is relying on the free media that's brought him this far (Never underestimate how much the press loves access to a candidate). And Huckabee is relying on word-of-mouth campaigning that got him a win in Iowa. Of course, the fact that neither has the money to run a big ad campaign makes the decision not to do so a lot easier.

-- By the way, consider a weakened GOP base: Rush Limbaugh is furious that McCain would even be allowed to use the party label, much less serve as standard-bearer. Conservatives not freaked out by the possibility of a President Obama or a President Clinton vote by staying home. And, chronically under-funded, the ticket can't compete with the hundreds of millions -- perhaps more -- that the Democratic team brings in. It is entirely likely, from the presidential level down, that this could be a doomsday year for Republicans, perhaps on a scale that makes 2006 look small by comparison.

-- Not all is bad news for the GOP this morning: Their old pal Ralph Nader is considering a new presidential bid, Bloomberg reports. If the presidential race is anywhere near close, Republicans will love it if Nader is back on the ballot. Nader will spend a month assessing his fundraising viability and hiring staff, he told reporters as he filed papers to form an exploratory committee.

-- Downer Of The Day: Last week, the conversations centered on two contested conventions, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton leaning on John Edwards delegates to win and Republicans in a three- or four-way melee for first place. Sadly, as happens every year, the idea of a contested convention is pleasant, but it's not going to happen. The Democratic race is a two-way contest with just 26 Edwards delegates up for grabs (fewer, actually -- his Iowa delegates haven't been picked yet, meaning they'll go with Clinton or Obama). On the GOP side too, there aren't enough delegates allocated yet to make the case against an overwhelming nominee. Contested conventions are fun to talk about, but there's a reason one hasn't happened in decades. This year, too, there will likely be two consensus choices.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton and Obama debate in Los Angeles tonight, after Obama holds a town hall meeting there. Also in L.A., McCain wins backing from California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Huckabee addresses the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, while Mitt Romney has tour stops in Long Beach, Fountain Valley and San Diego.