Morning Thoughts: Fight Night
Good Saturday morning. There's a lot more snow in New Hampshire than there was in Iowa, though candidates seem to be having no troubles getting around the state. Heading into tonight's back to back debates, here's what politicos from Washington to Des Moines to Manchester are watching:
-- Today On The Trail: Mitt Romney is in Derry, Hampstead and Bedford before heading to the 7 p.m. debate. He's scheduled a rally in Manchester after the debate. Mike Huckabee holds an event in Londonderry before going to the debate, while Rudy GIuliani hangs out with voters in Litchfield and Manchester after the big event. John McCain is in Peterborough, debates and rallies in Manchester, and Ron Paul hosts an event in Milford before heading debate-side. Fred Thompson has no public events today, but his third-place Iowa finish guarantees him a spot in the debate.
-- On the Democratic side, John Edwards begins his day in Portsmouth before rallying in Concord and Lebanon. Later, wife Elizabeth will hold events in Derry and Peterborough. Hillary Clinton's only public event is in Penacook, though she then hands the reins over to surrogate Bill for remaining events in Bow, Amherst and Brentwood. Barack Obama also holds just one event, a rally with voters in Nashua, though Michelle Obama will hold a forum in Manchester as he prepares for the debate. Bill Richardson has events in Hooksett and Manchester before the debate and another Manchester stop afterward.
-- Look for our round-up of what's at stake in the back-to-back gatherings, sponsored by ABC News, WMUR and Facebook, at St. Anselm a little later on. Suffice it to say: Everything. Obama has to act the front-runner. Clinton has to find an effective and devastating attack. Edwards has to break through. And can Richardson do anything at all?
-- Huckabee has to make his tax plan not sound nuts. Romney has to engage McCain, who has to hold on to the cranky New Hampshire voters who back him now. Giuliani has to do something to make himself relevant again. Paul has to go all libertarian on everything he can without sounding whiny, and Fred Thompson has to do something spectacular and make a good impression on South Carolinians.
-- In case you missed it, today is caucus day! Iowa is so important it gets a second pick. No, that's not quite true, but Romney has dispatched two of the vaunted five brothers to Wyoming, which will hold some 23 caucuses around the state to begin allocating Republican convention delegates. Romney has invested the most in Wyoming, though it isn't much. Still, he, Paul and Thompson have all visited, while McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani have not, Campaign Spot writes. Thompson won the Right to Life of Wyoming endorsement yesterday, giving him what we think is momentum, but here's how important the event actually is: "Wyoming GOP caucuses futile," opines the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle. Can you imagine a similar headline in the Des Moines Register?
-- Several months ago, many wrote Obama's political obituary, or at least an obituary for his presidential campaign. Now, some are ready to write off Hillary Clinton's chances too. She was booed twice at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's largest-ever gathering, some 3000 people, last night in Milford, as Jay Newton-Small writes. And yesterday, Edwards went as far as to say there are only two choices in the presidential race now -- himself and Obama -- and that Clinton will not win the primary, CNN reported. Politics Nation hasn't been to any Clinton events in New Hampshire yet, but today's papers are filled with stories on her campaign's retooling (just see the RCP homepage for examples). It is never good to write that someone is completely toast -- that's a surefire way to bring them back into contention -- but it's amazing to see these rumors of Clinton's demise even being written.
-- Huckabee, we mentioned, will focus more on his tax plan than on the socially conservative views that shaped his Iowa win as he campaigns in New Hampshire. The candidate doesn't have to win here -- in fact, he'll likely finish third if he's incredibly lucky -- though if he wants to win the nomination his momentum has to carry through to South Carolina. But Huckabee is clearly getting a second look. One reporter we talked to said Huckabee's first event yesterday drew a crowd several times larger than the biggest one he's had up here so far.
-- We wrote a while ago that the other candidates just don't seem to like Mitt Romney. And while Huckabee might not do very well in New Hampshire, he's going to see if he can't just help John McCain. "We are going to see if we can't take Romney out," campaign chief Ed Rollins told the New York Times. Huckabee has raised $2 million in recent days, Rollins said, and is even doing his own polling for the first time. How many polls do you think Romney conducted in Iowa?
-- Missed the Straight Talk Express bandwagon way back when? Now's your chance to hop on board. McCain's top fundraiser and campaign manager held a conference call urging fundraisers to go back to old sources, even those who have said no, Jonathan Martin reports. Finance chair Tom Loeffler told money men to use McCain's momentum in New Hampshire -- a state which, at last check, has not voted yet -- to make sure donors get on board soon. Campaign manager Rick Davis said he sees a win here helping McCain top Romney in Michigan before heading to South Carolina, where Huckabee will be the primary target, and Florida, where they will pay attention to Rudy Giuliani.
-- Must-See TV Of The Day: Excluded from the debates after a dead-last performance in Iowa and little more than an asterisk in New Hampshire, Mike Gravel reportedly has a rival gathering scheduled to coincide with tonight's big event. Unfortunately, Gravel scheduled his event for 7 p.m. That's when the Republicans debate, not the Democrats. Oops.



