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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Morning Thoughts: Hands Off McCain? | Blog Home Page | Who Not To Blame »

McConnell Up Big, But Polling?

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has no intention of suffering the same fate as former Senator Tom Daschle, who, as Democratic leader, lost his re-election bid amid charges of obstructionism and excessive partisanship.

McConnell is likely in better political position than Daschle was, and in a state friendlier to the GOP than South Dakota was to Democrats. But he's clearly worried: McConnell, whose back is nicely adorned with targets for liberal bloggers and Washington Democrats, has stockpiled a huge war-chest and has already run ads touting his successes.

Now, a new poll for McConnell's campaign shows him leading any potential opponent by double digits. The Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted 1/6-8 of 600 registered voters, indicates that McConnell is concerned enough to begin running a real campaign very early. The poll tested McConnell, businessman and former Lieutenant Governor nominee Charlie Owen, Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne, former Attorney General Greg Stumbo, businessman Greg Fischer and two-time gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford.

General Election Matchups
McConnell 50
Stumbo 40

McConnell 52
Lunsford 37

McConnell 53
Owen 35

McConnell 54
Fischer 32

McConnell 55
Horne 32

McConnell enjoys high 61% approval ratings, but it could be President Bush who pulls him down. In this ruby-red state, where Bush won twice easily, just 39% approve of his job performance as president. The war in Iraq, the economy, health care and education are Kentucky residents' top priorities, with more than 30% each (three responses were allowed), all of which would seem to play into Democrats' hands. Plus, McConnell cannot distance himself from the administration. Not only is McConnell the top Republican on Capitol Hill, but his wife, Elaine Chao, is Bush's Labor Secretary.

Democrats have some momentum heading into the race. After a big win in the state's gubernatorial election this year, the party has the chance -- albeit a tiny one -- to beat McConnell. Stumbo begins with the best name recognition; 47% of the state's voters view him favorably while 27% see him unfavorably. Just 23% say they see Lunsford favorably, while 12% say they see him unfavorably.

Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will face a huge battle. McCain announced last week that he raised $1.7 million in the fourth quarter, and despite the large television advertising buys, he maintained $7.3 million cash in hand. Both Fischer and Owen might loan their campaigns a significant amount of money, but anyone competing with McConnell's amount could get smacked down.

The race isn't hopeless for Democrats, but it could take some faith to invest there, especially after what looks like a difficult and bruising primary.