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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

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Indecision Sends Mixed Signals

Iowa and New Hampshire voters seemed delighted to tell reporters and pollsters they remained undecided even minutes before heading into a caucus or the voting booth. But indecision occurs for different reasons, and says something about the state of the parties leading toward November.

The latest CBS-New York Times surveys of both parties (GOPers here, Dems here, both PDFs) show Republicans remain undecided because more people dislike other candidates, while Democrats remain undecided more out of an embarrassment of riches. Just 5% of Democrats say they are backing a candidate because they dislike the others, while 13% of Republicans feel the same way.

Democrats say they are much more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans. 58% of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual, while just 32% of Republicans say the same thing. 19% of Republicans are less enthusiastic than usual, compared with just 8% of Democrats.

The reason many Republicans seem to be unhappy with their party is the current occupant of the White House, of whom even Republicans have grown weary. Only 39% say their party's nominee should continue President Bush's policies, while 50% say they believe the GOP nominee should change directions. Asked which candidate would be most likely to change from Bush's positions, Republican voters are unsure; John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are bunched together in the poll, with 12%, 11%, 10% and 9%, respectively.

In short, Democrats are reluctant to commit because they are satisfied with any of the three leading candidates and downright excited at the prospect of nominating one of the two candidates who would break a new barrier. On the other hand, if you ask the average Republican voter who he or she likes, they're more inclined to respond by telling you why they don't like everyone else.

That fundamental difference between the two parties could bode ill for Republicans come November. Democrats seem not only to have excited their base but to have expanded it, meaning their turnout task will be much easier. Republicans, on the other hand, may have a more difficult time rallying supporters around their nominee. That could spell serious danger for Republican incumbents and the GOP brand up and down the ballot.