Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire, preparing for her third annual State of the State Address tonight in Olympia, got some good news today as an independent poll shows her leading her 2004 rival by a wide margin, the first time the incumbent has seen a big lead after scratching out a win last time around. In 2004, Gregoire took several recounts to end up beating State Senator Dino Rossi by just 133 votes.

The survey, taken by independent pollster Stuart Elway, asked questions of 405 voters between 1/3-6, for a margin of error of about 5%. Gregoire and Rossi were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
Gregoire 48
Rossi 35

Rossi's disappointingly low number is close to the Republican baseline in Washington State. It's less than the percentage conservative candidates John Carlson and Ellen Craswell won in their races for governor, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports, and looks likely to rise.

Gregoire leads among every category of voters except independent voters, among whom she trails by nine, and voters from east of the Cascade Mountains, traditionally the GOP's stronghold in the state. Rossi strategists argued that the survey included too many self-identified Democrats, pointing to a poll in late October that showed Gregoire up just five points.