Rudy Giuliani's initial plan called for a big victory in Floirda just a week before February 5, catapulting him into the lead in key February 5 states and trading on his name recognition to help him win the GOP nomination. Just a week before the Florida vote, though, Giuliani finds his strategy in shambles.

Despite spending more than seven weeks of his time in Florida during the campaign, GIuliani now finds himself trailing John McCain and barely leading Mitt Romney, by 3.3 points and 0.7 points, respectively, according to the latest RCP Florida Average. While he led by as much as 18 points in mid-November, Giuliani has seen his support tumble while Romney, McCain and Mike Huckabee have all seen their numbers rise after wins in prominent early states.

But Giuliani's problem goes farther than that. Among the states voting on February 5 are key states, including Connecticut, New Jersey and his home state of New York. Because of his proximity to those states, Giuliani was supposed to easily outperform his competition. Recent polls, however, suggest different: Giuliani led by 16 points in a recent Garden State poll by Research 2000, though other surveys have McCain leading. Giuliani leads the RCP New Jersey Average by just 3.4 points.

That, for Giuliani, is the good news. In Giuliani's home state, McCain is either tied or leading in recent polls. In six polls conducted since January 9, Giuliani leads in just one; the two are tied in a new Quinnipiac survey; and McCain leads in four. The Arizona Senator leads the former New York Mayor in the latest RCP New York Average by 5.5 points. In neighboring Connecticut, a University of Connecticut poll for the Hartford Courant shows McCain leading by a whopping 23 points.

In California, meanwhile, a state in which Giuliani was supposed to cruise to a win based on his name recognition and others' reluctance to play in such expensive media markets, three recent polls put McCain up by 10.4 points in the latest RCP California Average.

With non-stop media coverage of the 2008 campaign, Giuliani's faltering strategy and the improved positions of McCain, Romney and even Huckabee prove a new rule of nominating contests: The press is hungry for a story, and a candidate can't rely on starting late. The traditional campaign is traditional for a reason: It works. Finishing no better than fourth or fifth is not the way to keep atop the polls in later contests, as Giuliani is finding out.

If the mayor had actually spent time in Iowa and New Hampshire, he might still have lost. But a second- or third-place showing in either state could have propelled him to better finishes later. Romney and McCain did well enough to win later contests; Giuliani could easily have done the same. When the campaign's obituary is written, which looks increasingly likely, it will hold an important lesson for future campaigns: Play early and often, even if you think you might lose. Taking a risk can be rewarded in presidential politics.