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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Dems Offer SOTU Response | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: Sunny Day »

Geographic Coalitions Key To FL Win

As Republicans make their final pleas across the Sunshine State today, Florida voters are given a unique opportunity to cast decisive votes in at least one party's nominating contest. Strategists looking at past elections in the state quickly discover that organizing in Florida is far different from other states: In multi-candidate primaries, big margins from one's own base are important, but the ability to bring together the state's myriad coalitions is the true key to victory.

Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, Florida is a massive state. Like South Carolina, its varied regions lend themselves more to some candidates than others. But South Carolina has three main regions; Florida has as many as eight, depending on who does the counting, and each brings important constituencies into play. Combine margins among several areas and a candidate will win. Depend on one region too much, and candidates pigeon-hole themselves and limit their vote ceilings.

The Panhandle, for example, is home to a significant number of veterans. In Rep. Jeff Miller's First Congressional District, stretching from Pensacola to more than one in five voters are military veterans, a higher percentage than any district in the country. Conversely, the northern-most part of the state is seen as the most Southern part of Florida. Both John McCain and Mitt Romney will compete strongly for votes there.

On the east side of the state, from the Jacksonville area near the Georgia line south to St. Augustine, Romney will have to battle Mike Huckabee for social conservative votes. The area has seen rapid growth, primarily in suburban areas populated by younger family-centric conservatives. If Romney scores a big win along the coast, he could be in strong position around the rest of the state.

Rudy Giuliani seemingly will not find a base until the central region starts reporting its votes. On the east side, the region around Daytona Beach and Orlando has seen an explosion in its Hispanic population in recent years, making it a likely target for eventual Democratic gains. But retirees have flocked there, and Giuliani has spent time courting their votes.

On the west side of the central region, Tampa Bay, home to the second-largest media market in Florida, also has its share of retirees. Republican votes there come from affluent suburbs and tend toward more moderate voting patterns that would fit both Giuliani and McCain. Without a big pro-Giuliani turnout throughout the central part of the state, the former New York Mayor is going to leave Florida empty-handed. Pasco County, just north of Tampa Bay, takes pride in reporting their vote counts early. If Giuliani is to have success among the retirees on whom he has focused, early results should show a big pro-Rudy edge.

Giuliani will also need a big boost from the Treasure Coast, an area on the state's southeastern edge including Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie and Palm Beach. Social conservatives are few and far between, and the area is home to the state's large Jewish community. Giuliani, insiders say, should be able to count on a boost there, as well.

More retirees populate Sarasota, Bradenton, Fort Myers and Naples, on the opposite coast. Here, though, those enjoying their golden years come largely from the Midwest as opposed to the Northeast. They are economic conservatives, setting up another battleground between Romney and McCain.

Finally, what is expected to be a close race all night could break open as more precincts come in from the south. Miami-Dade County and Broward County each have huge Cuban populations, which traditionally vote Republican. Districts represented by Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart, all Cuban Republicans, are a whopping 63%, 70% and 62% Hispanic in a state in which those of Hispanic origin make up about 17% of the population.

Candidates have focused much attention on the area, assiduously courting the community's leaders as much as Democrats did in Nevada. In the region where anti-Castro declarations are sure-fire applause lines, endorsements still matter, and that could work to benefit McCain. Both Diaz-Balarts, Ros-Lehtinen and Senator Mel Martinez, who was born in Sagua La Grande, Cuba, are backing the Arizona Senator. But, say veterans of Florida politics, McCain will be waiting on a bed of nails late into the night. The populous regions in the south are notoriously late in reporting their vote totals.

Because of Florida's tremendous size, it is difficult for a candidate to put together the coalitions needed for victory. The candidate who can string together coalitions of veterans, social conservatives, retirees and Cuban Americans stretching from the Redneck Riviera to the Florida Keys will pull off a win tonight, though as notoriously slow votes continue to trickle in, few are likely to benefit from a prime-time victory speech. That may have to wait until the early hours after midnight.