California Congressman John Doolittle's retirement announcement two weeks ago invited rampant speculation over a slew of potential candidates for the GOP nod. That number has dwindled, and the Republican primary now looks likely to be a three-person race.

Assemblyman Ted Gaines, State Senator Sam Aanestad, and Mike Holmes, who challenged Doolittle in the 2006 primary, have all recently taken their names out of contention, leaving only two candidate certain to be in the race: former State Senator Rico Oller and Air Force Reservist Eric Egland.

A third likely candidate is former Congressman Doug Ose, who reportedly is still weighing his options. Ose was elected to Congress from the 3rd District in 1998, and honored his pledge to serve just three terms. He briefly considered running for the Senate in 2004, but opted against it.

Before Ose's election in 1998, a Republican had never won the 3rd District since its creation in 1962. The 3rd shares its northern border with the expansive 4th District, and voters may be seeking someone with experience and a history of representing the area. With the current congressman under federal investigation for a lobbying scandal, a former congressman who kept his term-limit pledge and never ran afoul of the law may be an attractive successor.

Democrat Charlie Brown, who won 46% against Doolittle in 2006, may have a tougher time distinguishing himself against the moderate Ose, rather than Oller, a conservative in the state Senate. Oller previously ran for Congress in 2004, finishing a close second to Dan Lungren in the 3rd-district Republican primary to succeed Ose.

Despite Brown's good showing in 2006, whoever the Republican nominee is will be the favorite heading into the general election, as President Bush averaged 60% of the vote in 2000 and 2004. This likely would not have been the case had Doolittle decided to run again.

-- Kyle Trygstad