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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Gregoire Finally Up Big | Blog Home Page | Sebelius To Give Dem Response »

Dems To Clash In Sin City

Long neglected through the primary process, by both campaigns and the media, Nevada Democrats are the center of their party's attention tonight as the three (or four) Democrats remaining in the race head to Las Vegas for a two-hour debate tonight. Nevada brings many new twists to the Democratic race, and after a muddied picture following Iowa and New Hampshire, appealing to environmentalists, Hispanics and those concerned with Western issues has a new urgency for Democratic White House hopefuls.

A debate serves as a good time stamp in any race, especially one as convoluted as this. So while Michigan Republicans head to the polls to select their nominee, Democrats can pause and reflect on the state of their race. Each candidate has to have specific goals tonight, and when Tim Russert and Brian Williams let them get a word in edgewise, they have to make them count. Here is what each candidate needs to do not only to "win" tonight, but to advance their cause ahead of Nevada's Saturday caucuses:

Barack Obama: There is no doubt, Obama scored a bigger boost from his Iowa upset, which polls predicted and the media was prepared for, than Hillary Clinton did from her New Hampshire win, which no one foretold. Obama's bump gave him a lead in New Hampshire, which subsequently evaporated in the final hours before the vote.

Tonight, Obama needs to be sharp and confident, not shrill and overconfident. He needs to make his point quickly and succinctly, target Clinton when the situation demands it and move on. His advisers should remind him not to be funny, but to be presidential. Democratic voters know how they feel about his positions; they like his stands as much as they like Clinton's. Now, Obama has to show them that he can look and act like a president. The Clinton camp has long been sowing seeds arguing that Obama is not ready. Here is his chance to show voters he is ready.

Hillary Clinton: There is a long list of things Clinton must NOT do. No using the word "cocaine." No cackling. No references to race, no matter how well-explained, that will make everyone angry all over again. What she can do, though, is continue hammering Obama on his war record. As much as Obama's people spin it, the freshman Senator may be against the war, but Clinton actually voted against some funding measures while he voted in favor.

The distinction Clinton can make, again, is that Obama is a talker and she is a doer. That message seemed to resonate with some New Hampshire voters, and it's one that Clinton can carry through the February 5 states. She should show up tonight armed with a laundry list of things she has done or been a part of that are now either law or on their way to becoming law. And to hammer her point home, when John Edwards comes after her, she should smack him down fast and turn her attention back to Obama. While Edwards is taking some "change" votes from Obama, he's also taking some white votes from Clinton in South Carolina, a factor she is going to have to consider at some point.

John Edwards: Edwards is increasingly the odd man out. We heard little from him, save a statement expressing shock, during the recent Clinton-Obama race feud, and he's in desperate need of some oxygen. Fortunately, their spat gives him the opportunity to get back in the game. One unorthodox method he is unlikely to try, but could prove effective: Pretend the other two don't exist.

Clinton has some big labor endorsements, and Obama just picked up some top union backing in Nevada, but neither can compete on the accomplishments or good will level with Edwards, who is roundly beloved by union members. If Edwards focuses all his attention on them, a significant part of the Nevada Democratic electorate, he might go farther toward building a bigger base than he would if he sniped at Clinton all night. If he talks a big game on water and ranching issues, emphasizes plans that would send more low-income Hispanic kids to college and stays above the fray, he could have an intensely local night while Clinton and Obama go national. That might just speak to Nevada voters.

Dennis Kucinich: One thing Edwards needs that is completely out of his control is for the Nevada Supreme Court to agree with NBC and overturn a lower court judge's ruling that Kucinich must be involved in tonight's debate. Without Kucinich, Edwards not only gets more time but gets to be the only adult on stage. Kucinich, needless to say, has to have the court uphold the previous judgment to even be involved.

For all four candidates, the goals are out there, and the fate of the Nevada caucuses hang in the balance. We will know the outcome of Kucinich's fight first: That outcome is the difference between three and four podiums on stage. But the aftershocks of tonight's debate may not be felt until Saturday, when across the Silver State voters will head to church basements and neighbors' homes to caucus.

If all three front-running candidates spend tonight looking forward to future contests, we may not even know the fallout until South Carolina's primary, a week later. Debates are a good point at which to stop and assess the state of the race. But thanks to Iowa and New Hampshire, the picture is far from clear. Nevada Democrats have to be thrilled tonight: Their contest actually matters.