Dealing another body blow to House Republicans, ten-term Rep. Jim Walsh is likely to announce his retirement shortly, sources tell Politico's Patrick O'Connor. Walsh, who represents part of upstate New York, follows more than a dozen other veteran incumbents out the door, many of whom opened swing seats ripe for Democratic takeovers.

After nine easy elections, when Walsh coasted to victory, his was one of five seats in which Democrats over-performed in the Empire State. Congressional aide Dan Maffei, who had served New York icons Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Charlie Rangel, came back to his home town and, despite being out-spent two to one, came close to winning. It took more than a week for Maffei to concede; he lost by just over 3,000 votes. Still, before last year, Walsh had never seen an opponent come within ten points.

An unflashy moderate, Walsh has concentrated on his post on the Appropriations Committee, where he ranks sixth among Republicans in seniority and serves as ranking member of the Labor, HHS and Education subcommittee, after having served as chair of four other subcommittees. Before Congress, he served as a Peace Corps volunteer in Nepal and as a social worker.

The district spans from Syracuse and Onondaga County, west to the Rochester suburbs. While traditionally Republican, largely to send someone to Albany to balance out Democrats in New York City, it has recently trended Democratic on a federal level. Both Al Gore and John Kerry beat President Bush there, one of just a few seats Republicans hold that their presidential nominee lost.

Maffei began his bid for a rematch on a tear. He had raised more than $340,000 through September 30, and he retained about $315,000 in the bank. Walsh had more than $450,000 in the bank after September, but this year the fundraising gap would have been much smaller.

The open seat is exactly what Rep. Tom Cole and the NRCC don't need. In 2006, no region proved more difficult for Republicans, and more fertile for Democrats, than the Northeast. In New York, Democrats beat longtime incumbent Republcians Sue Kelly and John Sweeney, stole a seat left open by retiring Republican Sherwood Boehlert and came close to beating Walsh, Tom Reynolds and Randy Kuhl.

The GOP lost every statewide election in 2006, and the party holds on to the State Senate by a whisker. Upstate has shifted inexorably toward Democrats, who will also eventually make strong challenges for seats held by Long Island Rep. Peter King and Staten Island Rep. Vito Fossella. After 2006, just six of the twenty nine members of Congress representing New York are Republicans. If Walsh's retirement is any guide, 2008 could shrink that number even farther. It's hard to imagine after last year, but New York Republicans could discover they have yet to reach the bottom.