Get used to this: When New Jersey voters are polled about their choice for any office, a large percentage will tell pollsters where they can stick their survey, and in no uncertain terms. The state's electorate is notorious for remaining undecided well into late October, and even early November.

This year, when Senator Frank Lautenberg faces re-election, will be no exception. A new Monmouth University poll, conducted 1/9-13, shows many have yet to make up their mind on a candidate. The poll, of 698 registered voters, tested Lautenberg, developer and former Chamber of Commerce President Anne Evans Estabrook and State Senator Joe Pennacchio.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lautenberg 40 / 65 / 9 / 39
Pennacchio 25 / 12 / 52 / 26

Lautenberg 38 / 61 / 18 / 32
Estabrook 24 / 3 / 62 / 25

Neither Lautenberg nor Senator Bob Menendez are particularly popular in their home state. Just 43% approve of the job Lautenberg is doing, while Menendez has only a 37% approval rating. But only 28% and 25% disapprove, respectively, meaning Republicans will think they have a chance to pick off a Senate seat and Democrats will think they need to play serious defense.

But New Jersey has proven a tease to Republicans before. Two governor's races and two Senate races, in recent years, have given the GOP what they think is a shot at a victory, and candidates and the party have thrown millions into expensive Philadelphia and New York media markets. But they've come up short each time, as New Jersey voters break late for Democrats.

This year, will Republicans take the bait again and sink more hard-earned cash into what has recently been a sinkhole? Their lack of cash may preclude them from doing so, meaning the GOP will spend its money more efficiently and that Lautenberg could have an easier time than early poll numbers suggest.