In 2006, after Rep. Barbara Cubin told a wheelchair-bound opponent that she should slap him, Democrat Gary Trauner lost the seat by just over 1,000 votes, one of the closest races in the country in what is normally a very Republican state.

This year, Trauner is trying again. Cubin is not. A new survey, conducted by Washington-based Mason-Dixon for the Casper Star-Tribune, shows the Democrat might benefit from more than just a weakened incumbent. The survey, conducted 1/18-21, tested 625 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Trauner and Republican Cynthia Lummis were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Trauner 41 / 37
Lummis 40 / 33

Trauner, the poll shows, enjoys overwhelming support from Democrats, while Lummis, the state's former Treasurer, lags among her party's base: 23% said they would vote for the Democrat. Full numbers were not available, but both candidates are relatively well-liked. Trauner's unfavorables are at just 25%, while Lummis' are at only 17%.

Still, Lummis does not have an open path to the GOP nomination. She will face former Republican national committeeman Tom Sansonetti -- who was instrumental in moving Wyoming's primary to early January -- State Rep. Dan Zwonitzer, House Speaker Roy Cohee and former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, along with two other frequent candidates. Lummis is running well ahead, the poll shows, but it's by no means a done deal.

Primary Election Matchup
Lummis 31
Sansonetti 9
Zwonitzer 5
Cohee 4
Mead 3

While FEC reports aren't due until February 1, Trauner had raised more than $170,000 through the third quarter, easily out-pacing Cubin. That's not a huge amount of money, but in an inexpensive state, it's a big head start. None of the Republicans had filed yet, as all of them jumped in after Cubin's early November exit from the race. If Republicans are in trouble in Wyoming, the party could face another 2006-type election.